Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 1.90%Analysts have raised Nexstar Media Group’s price target to $231.89 on expectations of significant EBITDA synergies and revenue growth from the pending Tegna acquisition, deeper exposure to political ad markets, and a favorable regulatory outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite Nexstar's pending acquisition of Tegna as a major catalyst, projecting significant synergies and expansion, with the combined entity expected to cover 80% of U.S. TV households.
- Bullish analysts anticipate base-case synergy realization of over 35% of Tegna's adjusted EBITDA, with further upside possible based on historical performance of similar deals.
- The acquisition is viewed as deepening Nexstar's presence in valuable swing states, enhancing the potential for increased political advertising revenue and competitive positioning for content acquisition.
- Regulatory uncertainty and potential required divestitures are considered, but the prevailing momentum towards deregulation in U.S. broadcasting is seen as favoring deal approval.
- The all-cash, $22 per share bid for Tegna is considered an excellent outcome for both companies, particularly given the positive regulatory backdrop, resulting in upward revisions to Nexstar's price targets by bullish analysts.
What's in the News
- Nexstar Media Group (NXST) is in advanced negotiations to acquire rival broadcaster Tegna (TGNA), a deal that would create a major local TV station owner with over 260 outlets combined (WSJ, 2025-08-08 / Key Developments, 2025-08-08).
- The terms and valuation of the potential Nexstar-Tegna deal are not publicly disclosed, but Tegna's market cap stood at $2.46 billion with shares up over 27% to $19.50 following news of the talks; Tegna also has total debt of $3.12 billion (Key Developments, 2025-08-08).
- Sinclair has made a competing offer to merge its broadcast TV unit with Tegna, valuing Tegna shares at $25–$30 each, and proposing to spin off its Ventures business, intensifying the bidding for Tegna's assets (WSJ, 2025-08-18).
- Both Nexstar and Tegna operate stations affiliated with major networks (ABC, CBS, NBC, Fox); Nexstar also owns the CW network and NewsNation, positioning the combined group as a dominant player if the deal proceeds (Key Developments, 2025-08-08).
- Nexstar completed a share buyback tranche between April and June 2025, repurchasing 311,998 shares for $49.83 million; to date, Nexstar has repurchased 9.66 million shares (28.14% of shares outstanding) for $1.59 billion since July 2022 (Key Developments, 2025-08-07).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Nexstar Media Group
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $227.56 to $231.89.
- The Future P/E for Nexstar Media Group remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 11.74x to 11.96x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Nexstar Media Group remained effectively unchanged, at -0.3% per annum.
Disclaimer
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