Update shared on 14 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 20%Analysts have lowered their price target for Gambling.com Group from approximately $14.14 to $11.29 per share. They cite increased competition, uncertainty in search revenue trends, and revised growth outlooks as key drivers for the more cautious valuation.
Analyst Commentary
Following recent company developments and financial updates, analysts have shared a range of insights reflecting cautious optimism as well as lingering concerns regarding Gambling.com Group's outlook and execution.
Bullish Takeaways- The OddsHoldings acquisition is viewed as a long-term positive and positions Gambling.com for potential future growth in new segments.
- Analysts highlight ongoing efforts to adjust the company's strategy around its affiliate business, signaling commitment to adaptability and improved long-term prospects.
- Despite sector challenges, there remains an overall positive view on the online gaming space. Some analysts maintain favorable ratings and expectations for healthy double-digit growth next year in non-SEO performance marketing segments.
- There is concern around increased competition for marketing budgets among industry B2B operators. This could intensify pressure on margins and revenue growth.
- Ongoing volatility in Search revenue remains a key risk, especially as Search currently represents a significant portion of the company's total revenue.
- Some analysts believe that despite recent valuation resets and updated guidance, there could still be further negative revisions due to sector uncertainties such as ranking deprecation and potential shortfalls in critical revenue streams.
- Reduced fiscal 2026 estimates reflect growing uncertainty and caution surrounding management's revised strategy and broader market sentiment.
What's in the News
- Gambling.com Group updated its earnings guidance for the full year 2025 and adjusted its revenue outlook to approximately $165 million, representing 30% year-over-year growth (Key Developments).
- The guidance revision reflects ongoing headwinds from weak organic search performance, which affected the company's marketing business through the third quarter. Although somewhat recovering, this trend continues into the fourth quarter (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $14.14 to $11.29 per share. This reflects a more cautious outlook.
- Discount Rate: Marginally reduced from 7.71% to 7.61%, which indicates a slightly lower perceived risk.
- Revenue Growth: Decreased from 16.55% to 15.62%. This signals moderated expectations for future sales expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased from 27.06% to 30.63%. This suggests improved profitability projections despite revenue adjustments.
- Future P/E Ratio: Declined from 10.34x to 7.44x, representing a notable drop in valuation multiple expectations.
Disclaimer
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