GAMB: Sports Data And Prediction Markets Will Drive Long-Term Upside

Analysts have cut their fair value estimate for Gambling.com Group to $12.00 from $17.00, reflecting lower projected revenue growth and valuation multiples, despite improved profit margin expectations and long term optimism around the evolving business mix.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street commentary reflects a more cautious stance on near term earnings power but continues to highlight structural growth drivers and the potential for multiple expansion if management executes on its evolving strategy. While price targets have generally moved lower, bullish analysts still frame the stock as a long term compounder tied to the expansion of regulated online gaming and more diversified revenue streams beyond traditional search driven performance marketing.

Several notes emphasize that the ongoing shift toward sports data services and prediction markets, alongside affiliate optimization and recent M&A, could support a higher quality, more recurring earnings mix over time. This evolving business model, if successfully scaled, is seen as a key underpinning for re rating potential once search volatility abates and visibility on growth normalizes.

At the same time, cautious voices point to the near term drag from algorithm driven search pressure, softer than expected EBITDA, and heightened competitive intensity for marketing budgets, all of which weigh on current year forecasts and justify lower valuation multiples in the short run. Nevertheless, even among more neutral stances, there is acknowledgement that a clearer path to stable non search growth could quickly change sentiment and narrow the discount to peers.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts continue to see long term upside as the company pivots from a search centric affiliate model toward a broader sports data and prediction market platform. They argue that a higher mix of recurring, data driven revenue could warrant a premium multiple over time.
• The OddsHoldings acquisition is highlighted as a strategically important asset that can accelerate scale in key markets, deepen the product offering, and support above market growth in fiscal 2026 and beyond, improving confidence in the medium term earnings trajectory.
• Despite near term estimate cuts, bullish views stress that the stock already discounts a conservative growth outlook. They suggest that any stabilization in search trends or outperformance in non SEO performance marketing could drive positive estimate revisions and re rating.
• Some research points to resilient demand for sports data services, with management increasingly viewing this as the core of the business, a development that bullish analysts believe can enhance visibility, reduce cyclicality, and ultimately support a higher fair value relative to current levels.

What's in the News

• Prepared to support Missouri licensed operators as online sports betting launches on December 1, 2025, with OpticO sports data services, marketing support, and the BetMiss Missouri.com portal aimed at guiding consumers and operators in the new market (Key Developments).
• BetMiss Missouri.com survey finds around 1 in 4 Missouri adults are likely to place online sports bets once legal, nearly 14% expect to bet at least weekly, and almost 30% show interest in wagering on award shows and reality TV, signaling broad demand beyond traditional sports (Key Developments).
• Updated 2025 guidance to approximately $165 million in revenue, reflecting about 30% year over year growth but also acknowledging continued headwinds from weak organic search dynamics through the back half of the year (Key Developments).
• Completed a multiyear share repurchase program, buying back 3,960,663 shares, or about 10.91% of outstanding shares, for $35.58 million, including 671,998 shares repurchased between July 1 and November 13, 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has fallen significantly from $17.00 to $12.00 per share, reflecting a more conservative outlook on near term performance and valuation multiples.
• Discount Rate has edged down slightly from 7.71% to 7.70%, implying only a minimal change in perceived risk or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth has been revised down from 19.15% to 15.62%, indicating a meaningful reduction in expected top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin has risen modestly from 30.24% to 33.03%, signaling improved profitability assumptions despite slower revenue growth.
• Future P/E multiple has been cut significantly from 10.40x to 6.84x, pointing to a lower valuation framework applied to forward earnings.