FOXA: Advertising And Distribution Momentum Will Support Measured Future Share Price Upside

Analysts have lifted their price target on Fox, citing a series of estimate revisions that reflect stronger than expected advertising and distribution momentum, robust Q1 earnings beats across key metrics, and improving free cash flow and subscriber trends. Collectively, these factors support a valuation increase of several dollars per share toward the mid to high $60s and beyond.

Analyst Commentary

Street research has turned more constructive on Fox, with a wave of target price increases and rating upgrades reflecting stronger execution in advertising, distribution, and cost management. The recent Q1 earnings beat appears to have been a key catalyst, prompting analysts to recalibrate assumptions around revenue durability, free cash flow generation, and the pace of subscriber erosion.

Bullish analysts emphasize that Fox is increasingly being valued as a scarce live sports and news asset with improving digital scale via Tubi, while still trading at what they view as a discount to its growth and cash flow potential. At the same time, some cautious voices highlight ongoing investment needs and balance sheet considerations that could temper upside if execution or macro conditions weaken.

Bullish Takeaways

• Multiple bullish analysts have lifted price targets into the mid to high $60s and, in some cases, the $70s and beyond, arguing that Fox's earnings power and cash flow trajectory are underappreciated in the current valuation.
• Q1 results delivered a broad based beat on revenue and EBITDA, reinforcing confidence that Fox can grow profitably even against tough political and sports comparison periods. This supports a higher earnings multiple.
• Advertising is seen as a key driver of upside, with double digit streaming growth at Tubi and record ad revenue at Fox News signaling that Fox's core brands and digital extensions can sustain secular growth beyond the current cycle.
• Improving trends in subscriber losses are viewed as an important inflection point, as moderating declines reduce a structural headwind and increase visibility into future distribution revenue and free cash flow.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain focused on free cash flow, noting that while the deficit has narrowed, capital returns and programs like accelerated share repurchases could limit balance sheet flexibility if macro or ratings trends soften.
• There is lingering concern that linear subscriber erosion, even if moderating, could re accelerate in a weaker economy, pressuring distribution revenue and challenging the sustainability of current valuation multiples.
• Some cautious views highlight that Fox's strong quarter benefited from favorable sports and news ratings, and that execution risk remains if future sports cycles or news viewership fail to match recent strength.
• Ongoing investment needs in streaming and sports rights are seen as a potential drag on margin expansion, which could cap upside to current target prices if revenue growth decelerates or advertising momentum cools.

What's in the News

• Fox is scheduled to report earnings before the market open, with Wall Street consensus expecting $1.10 in EPS for Fox Corp. Class A shares. This places the company among a crowded slate of blue chip reporters. (Periodicals)
• Fox has invested in vertical video company Holywater, which runs platforms such as My Drama, My Passion, and My Muse, and plans to have Fox Entertainment Studios produce over 200 vertical video titles for My Drama over the next two years. (Periodicals)
• Tubi Media Group struck a multi year deal with true crime podcast network Audiochuck, securing exclusive distribution and ad sales rights for top shows like Crime Junkie and creating a dedicated Crime Junkie FAST channel across Fox streaming platforms. (Key Developments)
• Fox Advertising formed a strategic partnership with Mobian to enhance its Converged Media Platform with AI powered audience insights, contextual ad placement, and outcome based measurement across the Fox portfolio, starting with Fox News Media. (Key Developments)
• From July 1 to October 30, 2025, Fox repurchased over 5 million shares for about $300 million, completing a long running buyback program that has retired roughly 36.9 percent of shares since 2019 at a total cost of about $6.9 billion. (Key Developments)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $71.53 per share, indicating a stable intrinsic valuation despite updated inputs.
• Discount Rate: Fallen slightly from about 6.99 percent to 6.97 percent, implying a marginally lower required return on equity risk.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged, holding at roughly 1.14 percent, suggesting no material revision to long term topline expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: Stable at around 11.32 percent, with only an immaterial rounding adjustment in the model.
• Future P/E: Edged down modestly from about 18.89x to 18.88x, reflecting a slightly lower multiple applied to forward earnings.