Update shared on29 Jul 2025
Fair value Decreased 18%Bumble’s price target has been sharply revised downward, primarily driven by deteriorating revenue growth forecasts, resulting in a reduced fair value estimate from $8.22 to $6.22.
What's in the News
- Elite dating apps and matchmaking services are gaining traction as users experience "app fatigue" with traditional platforms, with some willing to pay premium prices for personalized matchmaking; sector players like Bumble are facing shifts in user demand (Bloomberg).
- Match Group's Tinder has seen declining paying users for eight consecutive quarters, casting a shadow on sector growth prospects and impacting peer companies such as Bumble (Bloomberg).
- Bumble Inc. issued Q2 2025 revenue guidance of $235–$243 million, with Bumble App Revenue projected at $193–$199 million (Company Guidance, May 7, 2025).
- Between January 1 and March 31, 2025, Bumble repurchased approximately 4.75 million shares, completing a total buyback of 42.88 million shares (34.3% of shares outstanding) at a cost of $400.21 million since May 2023 (Buyback Tranche Update, May 7, 2025).
- The buyback activity signals an aggressive capital return strategy as sector-wide challenges and stagnant growth in traditional dating apps intensify (Bloomberg; Buyback Tranche Update).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Bumble
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $8.22 to $6.22.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Bumble has significantly fallen from -2.1% per annum to -4.5% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Bumble has significantly fallen from 9.08x to 5.94x.
Disclaimer
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