Update shared on22 Dec 2024
Revenue Decline Stalls Hopes Of A Turnaround
- Bumble reported Q4 2024 revenue of $262 million, with a 4% year-over-year decline. The company’s Bumble App revenue came in at $212 million, but average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) fell 8% due to shifting geographic user trends.
- Bumble has projected a 7%-10% decline in Q1 2025 revenue, citing ecosystem adjustments and user engagement shifts. The company now expects paying user numbers to drop by 100,000 to 120,000. Bumble is also shutting down its Fruitz and Official apps, refocusing resources on its core platform and Bumble BFF. However, with the loss of a unique selling point, this effort will not be enough.
- Q1 2025 guidance suggests EBITDA margins will fall to 25%, driven by lower revenue and increased investments in product and technology.
- The online dating sector has struggled industry-wide, with Match Group's Tinder also losing 454,000 paying users in Q4 2024, signaling a broader slowdown just as my original thesis anticipated. Hinge remains the standout performer, though its growth has also slowed.
New -Old Leadership And Marginal Benefits From Buybacks
- Founder Whitney Wolfe Herd will return as CEO in March 2025, replacing Lidiane Jones after just over a year. Furthermore, CFO Anu Subramanian is also leaving at the end of Q1, leaving the company without a key figure in a critical moment. Analysts pressed for details on the CFO search at the earnings conference call, with Wolfe Herd confirming it as a top priority.
- Bumble repurchased $40 million of shares in Q4, leaving $65 million available under its buyback program. However, growing concerns over financial stability and profitability have weighed on investor sentiment.
Owing to these developments, I’m leaving my narrative unchanged.
Disclaimer
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