BILI: Upcoming Games Upswing Will Drive Renewed Bullish Share Momentum

The analyst price target for Bilibili has edged higher by about $0.11 per share as analysts factor in a modestly lower discount rate and improved visibility on a games-led recovery following a solid Q3 and stronger-than-expected performance from recent titles.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reflects a more constructive outlook on Bilibili as its games pipeline begins to show tangible traction, but also highlights lingering concerns around valuation and execution risk.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts point to the successful launch of Escape From Duckov as evidence that Bilibili can reignite growth in its games segment, supporting a games led recovery narrative.
• Better than expected performance in the games business, combined with upcoming release and billings catalysts, is viewed as a potential driver of sustained top line momentum over the next few quarters.
• The upward revisions to price targets reflect increased confidence that the current content and games roadmap can translate into higher monetization and expand the company’s long term earnings power.
• Shares reacting positively to recent game launch data is interpreted as validation that the market will reward execution on new titles, providing a clearer pathway for multiple expansion if performance continues to beat expectations.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts stress that, despite recent operational improvements, the stock’s valuation is still demanding relative to near term earnings visibility, limiting upside in the absence of consistent outperformance.
• There is caution that the anticipated games up cycle remains dependent on a narrow set of titles delivering, which heightens execution risk if upcoming releases or billings data disappoint.
• Some see Q3 and the early games recovery as merely decent rather than transformational, arguing that Bilibili must prove it can sustain growth while improving profitability before a more aggressive re rating is warranted.
• Uncertainty around the durability of user engagement and monetization across Bilibili’s broader ecosystem is seen as a constraint on how quickly the discount rate can compress, tempering enthusiasm for more substantial target hikes.

What's in the News

• A scheduled board meeting on November 13, 2025, will approve and announce unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025. This puts upcoming earnings and guidance in focus for investors (Key Developments).
• An update on the existing share repurchase program confirms that no additional shares were bought between July 1 and September 30, 2025. The company had previously completed repurchases of 6.4 million shares, or about 1.54% of outstanding shares, for $116.4 million under the buyback announced on November 14, 2024 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value increased slightly from 29.93 to 30.04, reflecting a marginally higher intrinsic valuation per share.
• The Discount Rate edged down modestly from 9.30% to 9.26%, implying a slightly lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth remained effectively unchanged at about 9.48%, indicating no material shift in top line growth assumptions.
• Net Profit Margin was essentially flat at around 9.89%, suggesting stable expectations for long term profitability.
• Future P/E eased slightly from 30.14x to 30.07x, pointing to a marginally lower valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.