Update shared on23 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 1.41%Bilibili's analyst fair value target has been raised modestly to $28.51 from $28.11. This change reflects stronger-than-expected recent game performance as well as continued resilience in advertising and user engagement, according to analysts.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research highlights a mix of optimism and caution among analysts evaluating Bilibili's forward prospects. The following summarizes key bullish and bearish takeaways reflected in the latest analysis.
Bullish Takeaways- Several analysts have raised their price targets, citing positive momentum in Bilibili's games business and stronger-than-expected sales data from new releases, such as Escape From Duckov.
- Advertising revenue is expected to sustain robust growth through the second half of the year, with fast ad momentum helping to offset softness elsewhere.
- User engagement and monetization levels remain healthy, supporting a resilient long-term outlook for the platform.
- Operating efficiency has improved, with recent earnings exceeding expectations due to lower selling and marketing expenses. This has contributed positively to margin outlooks.
- Some analysts have opted to lower their price targets or ratings, pointing to anticipated declines in near-term game revenue following a strong prior-year base.
- JPMorgan has shifted to a more neutral stance, citing a less compelling risk/reward balance after the stock's year-to-date rally and projecting limited catalysts from major game launches through the rest of 2025.
- There remains concern that growth in value-added services and games may be muted in the coming quarters, with core business segments facing higher comparison bases.
- While ad revenue continues to outperform, a mid-to-high teens decline in game revenue is expected to weigh on overall growth and valuation.
What's in the News
- Bilibili Inc.'s Board of Directors will meet on November 13, 2025 to approve unaudited financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025 and announce Q3 results (Key Developments).
- Between January 1 and June 30, 2025, Bilibili repurchased 5,560,833 shares for $100.04 million. This completed a total buyback of 6,400,000 shares for $116.4 million under the program started in November 2024 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Target has risen slightly to $28.51 from $28.11.
- Discount Rate is marginally higher, now at 8.84% compared to 8.83% previously.
- Revenue Growth estimate has increased to 9.45% from 9.25%.
- Net Profit Margin projection has declined modestly to 8.51% from 8.80%.
- Future P/E ratio has increased to 31.72x from 30.42x.
Disclaimer
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