Update shared on08 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 2.84%Olin's fair value estimate has increased modestly from $23.47 to $24.13 per share, as analysts revise expectations following lowered growth outlooks. They also note stabilization in key markets and the prospect of improving commercial sales performance.
Analyst Commentary
Recent research updates reflect a balanced view of Olin’s future outlook, with both optimism regarding stabilization and persisting concerns on growth execution.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts see increasing signs of EBITDA stabilization in key market segments and indicate that the bottom may have been reached.
- Improving performance in commercial sales is expected, particularly as management highlights a likely upturn in Winchester sales declines.
- Key operational segments such as chlor-alkali and epoxy are considered unlikely to deteriorate further. This supports a more stable valuation baseline.
- Ongoing adjustments in commercial strategy could position Olin for better margin preservation and recovery in future quarters.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts have downgraded expectations and reflect cooling sentiment on near-term growth and execution risks.
- Recent valuation target reductions are tied to 2025 EBITDA projections coming in below earlier estimates, especially in base epoxy resins and the Winchester commercial segment.
- There remains uncertainty around the company’s ability to boost commercial pricing. This is viewed as essential for margin defense heading into next year.
- Persisting challenges in select business lines continue to weigh on overall confidence and limit confidence in a quick rebound for the stock.
What's in the News
- Olin Corporation is transitioning its participation in the vinyls value chain by ending its Blue Water Alliance joint venture with Mitsui by year-end. Both parties will continue to collaborate under a more flexible framework, ensuring continuity for BWA customers (Key Developments).
- The board of directors has amended Olin's Bylaws to change procedures for shareholder director nominations and proposals. Director candidates are now required to be available for board interviews and other procedural points have been clarified (Key Developments).
- Between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025, Olin repurchased 510,088 shares for $10.01 million, progressing its ongoing buyback program announced in July 2022 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Increased slightly to $24.13 per share from $23.47 per share, reflecting updated analyst models.
- Discount Rate: Reduced marginally from 9.61% to 9.59%, indicating modestly improved risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth: Lowered from 3.58% to 2.84% as expectations for topline expansion have moderated.
- Net Profit Margin: Declined to 4.89% from 5.07%, suggesting slightly weaker profitability projections.
- Future P/E: Increased to 9.68x from 8.89x, indicating a shift to a higher expected valuation multiple.
Disclaimer
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