Update shared on06 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 3.07%Driven by expectations of sustained tariff support, a higher price floor for U.S. steel, and sector preference for domestic producers under protectionist policies, analysts have raised Nucor’s consensus price target modestly from $154.99 to $159.75.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts cite a valuation premium for U.S. steel mills, driven by protectionist policies and national security backing from the Trump administration, supporting higher through-cycle pricing.
- Recent steel price target increases reflect a multiple re-rating off presidential policy lows and expectations of a higher price floor in the sector.
- Near-term support for U.S. steel prices is expected despite weak demand, with tariff benefits anticipated to strengthen into year-end, though analysts note risk from increasing domestic supply in 2026.
- Higher steel price estimates are supported by the doubling of tariffs to 50%, benefiting domestic mills in the near term, although soft demand and potential future trade deals could limit upside.
- Sector preferences currently favor U.S.-focused steel producers over global peers due to tariff policies and expected demand recovery in 2027.
What's in the News
- Canada will remove most retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods but maintain 25% import taxes on U.S. steel and aluminum, impacting Nucor and peers (Bloomberg, 2025-08-22).
- The Trump administration expanded tariffs to 407 additional derivative steel and aluminum products, affecting Nucor and other steelmakers (Reuters, 2025-08-17).
- New broad tariffs were imposed by President Trump on exports from dozens of countries, including a 35% duty on Canadian goods and 50% on Brazilian steel/aluminum, with direct implications for Nucor (Reuters, 2025-08-01).
- Global steel overproduction is forecasted to hit 721 million tons by 2027, exacerbating supply-demand imbalances and pressuring pricing and margins for Nucor (NYT, 2025-07-25).
- Canada signaled potential increases in steel and aluminum tariffs, particularly on U.S. imports, to address oversupply concerns and protect domestic producers like Nucor from foreign competition (Financial Times, 2025-06-20).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Nucor
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $154.99 to $159.75.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Nucor has significantly risen from 5.8% per annum to 6.5% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Nucor has risen slightly from 9.61% to 9.92%.
Disclaimer
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