LYB: Future Results Will Be Supported By Rebounding Catalyst Segment Demand

The analyst price target for LyondellBasell Industries has been lowered. The consensus has moved down by approximately $1 to reflect ongoing concerns about weak demand and inconsistent industrial end markets, according to analysts.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst updates on LyondellBasell Industries highlight a mix of cautious sentiment and limited optimism as the company faces ongoing headwinds in key markets. Price targets have been revised downward, reflecting updated views on near-term business dynamics and valuation pressures.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts see some resilience in the company’s commodity businesses, noting that certain segments showed stronger performance by the end of the second quarter.
• Despite lower near-term expectations, there is recognition of LyondellBasell’s ability to manage operations amid a challenging macro environment.
• Some believe that downside risk may already be reflected in the current share price, which provides limited but notable valuation support.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts point to a “decidedly negative” macro setup entering the second half of the year, which places ongoing pressure on both demand and profitability.
• Recent slippage in commodity businesses, coupled with highly inconsistent industrial end markets, raises concerns about execution and growth prospects.
• Lowered earnings and EBITDA estimates are driven by weak seasonal demand growth and surplus inventory, suggesting further downside risk to near-term financial results.
• The lack of typical seasonal strength in recent quarters undermines hopes for a rebound later in the year and reduces the likelihood of improved performance in upcoming periods.

What's in the News

• LyondellBasell Industries provided earnings guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting improved profitability as previously sold licenses reach revenue milestones (Corporate Guidance).
• The company anticipates that catalyst demand will rebound from unusually low levels in the third quarter. This is expected to support the Technology segment's performance (Corporate Guidance).
• Recent U.S. import tariffs are creating challenges for European chemical companies, including LyondellBasell. Global trade disruptions are resulting in delayed customer orders (Reuters).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly from $55 to $53.78, reflecting updated business expectations.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.92% to 9.20%, indicating a marginally higher risk assessment or return requirement.
• Revenue Growth projections have improved modestly. The current estimate is -8.47% compared to the prior -9.25% estimate.
• Net Profit Margin forecast has declined marginally, moving from 6.87% to 6.66%.
• Future P/E Ratio is virtually unchanged, increasing slightly from 11.47x to 11.50x.