Update shared on08 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.79%International Paper's analyst price target has shifted downward, moving from $54.33 to $53.35 per share. Analysts point to more moderate revenue growth expectations and a cautious outlook on near-term demand and execution risks.
Analyst Commentary
Recent Street research reveals a mix of views on International Paper, as analysts weigh positive longer-term drivers alongside more pronounced near-term challenges. Below is a summary of the key themes emerging from recent analyst reports:
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have increased their price targets, reflecting the potential for future revenue recovery and pricing stability in the packaging segment.
- The removal of excess capacity by producers has contributed to seven months of stable pricing, which may help support margins moving forward.
- Some analysts anticipate the possibility of price increases in 2026, which could provide a favorable catalyst for earnings and valuation.
- Market supply discipline in the U.S. is improving, creating a healthier operating environment for paper producers.
- Several analysts maintain cautious outlooks, citing that too much near-term optimism may already be reflected in the current stock price. This poses downside risk.
- Execution risks remain, particularly around achieving growth targets in Europe and relying on more complex strategic actions beyond 2026.
- Recent downgrades highlight disappointing quarterly results and persistent demand weakness. These factors could pressure profitability in the short term.
- Valuation concerns have risen, as some peers are seen as more attractive for exposure to U.S. packaging market improvements. International Paper is potentially trading at a premium.
What's in the News
- Announced plans to convert the No. 16 paper machine at the Riverdale mill in Selma, Alabama to produce containerboard by the third quarter of 2026, transitioning from its current supply of uncoated freesheet. (Key Developments)
- Finalized agreements with Kraton Corporation to provide uninterrupted site services at Kraton's Savannah, Georgia facility. This reinforces the companies' commitment to operational reliability and supply chain stability. (Key Developments)
- Reported completion of its share repurchase program, having acquired 14,260,530 shares, representing 4.02%, for $537.01 million since October 2021. (Key Developments)
- Provided guidance for the third quarter of 2025 that expects significantly higher sequential earnings. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has declined slightly, dropping from $54.33 to $53.35 per share.
- Discount Rate has risen moderately, moving from 7.20% to 7.40%.
- Revenue Growth Estimate has been reduced from 8.62% to 7.89%.
- Net Profit Margin has improved slightly, increasing from 7.08% to 7.26%.
- Future P/E Ratio has edged lower from 21.73x to 21.34x.
Disclaimer
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