Update shared on22 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 7.20%Analysts have lowered their price targets for Graphic Packaging Holding by several dollars. This reflects more cautious expectations due to ongoing softer market conditions in the packaging industry.
Analyst Commentary
Analysts have recently reviewed their outlook for Graphic Packaging Holding, reflecting a mix of cautious sentiment and modest confidence in the company's fundamentals. The following sections summarize the key bullish and bearish takeaways from the latest updates.
Bullish Takeaways- Analysts continue to maintain Neutral ratings, suggesting that while there is caution, basic confidence remains in the company's operational stability.
- The company's core position in the packaging industry provides some resilience even as broader market conditions remain challenging.
- Graphic Packaging's ability to retain its rating and adjust in line with market shifts demonstrates an ongoing capacity for operational execution and adaptation.
- Price targets have been reduced, reflecting tempered expectations for near-term growth and profitability due to softer industry demand.
- Forecasts and estimates in the containers and packaging segment have been revised downward, indicating concerns over the pace of recovery in the sector.
- Analysts are watching macroeconomic pressures, acknowledging that further headwinds could limit valuation upside and earnings visibility in the quarters ahead.
What's in the News
- Chief Financial Officer Stephen R. Scherger has resigned, effective November 7, 2025. Charles D. Lischer has been appointed as Interim CFO (Key Developments).
- Graphic Packaging Holding provided full-year 2025 earnings guidance, projecting net sales between $8.4 billion and $8.6 billion (Key Developments).
- Between April 1 and June 30, 2025, the company repurchased 4,982,296 shares, representing 1.65% of outstanding shares, for $110.91 million under its ongoing buyback plan (Key Developments).
- No shares were repurchased between April 30 and June 30, 2025, under a separate buyback announcement made on May 1, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $24.95 to $23.15, reflecting a modest reduction in perceived intrinsic value.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 8.38% to 8.47%. This indicates a marginal increase in the risk premium applied to future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth forecast has fallen from 1.64% to 1.47%, suggesting expectations for slower sales expansion.
- Net Profit Margin estimate has decreased from 7.61% to 7.27%. This points to a slightly diminished profitability outlook.
- Future P/E Ratio has edged down from 13.07x to 12.80x, signaling slightly lower anticipated market valuation for forward earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.