Greif's analyst price target has been revised downward from $75.80 to $73.80, reflecting tempered expectations following recent asset sales and ongoing sector headwinds cited by analysts.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst coverage of Greif has reflected a mix of optimism and caution regarding the company’s valuation and future prospects following recent asset sales and shifting sector trends.

Bullish Takeaways

• Some bullish analysts highlight Greif’s potential for a more active financial strategy in upcoming years. They have expectations of an under-levered balance sheet by the end of the year, which may support possible investments or shareholder returns.
• Analysts generally agree that proceeds from the containerboard and timberlands sales will provide financial flexibility. Lower debt and higher cash reserves are viewed as likely to help offset any potential earnings impact from these divestitures.
• Underlying core performance is anticipated to remain stable, with certain analysts forecasting resilience in results despite noise from asset sales.
• Growth opportunities in adjacent or alternative segments are implied to improve as capital is redeployed and the company reduces exposure to more volatile markets.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bears point to ongoing volume growth challenges and suggest that headwinds in key end-markets could continue to weigh on execution and financial performance in the near term.
• There is skepticism about Greif’s ability to fully replace earnings from sold businesses. Limited visibility on new growth sources or margin expansion is noted as these assets exit the portfolio.
• Analysts continue to express caution regarding broader sector pressures, particularly the weak demand trends in chemical and automotive-related packaging. These pressures have begun to manifest in both domestic and European markets.
• Some believe there are more attractive combinations of catalysts and upside elsewhere in the sector, which reduces enthusiasm for Greif’s current valuation despite strategic asset moves.

What's in the News

• The Board of Directors declared quarterly cash dividends of $0.56 per share on Class A Common Stock and $0.84 per share on Class B Common Stock. The dividends are payable on October 1, 2025 to stockholders of record as of September 16, 2025 (Key Developments).
• The company entered into a definitive agreement to sell the Soterra land management business, which includes over 173,000 acres of timberlands in the Southeastern United States, for $462 million to Molpus Woodlands Group. Proceeds from the sale will be directed toward debt repayment (Key Developments).
• The company announced the permanent closure of its steel and polymer drum facility in Merced, California, scheduled for September 2025. This will impact approximately 43 positions and is part of a $100 million cost reduction initiative. Remaining orders will be handled by Greif’s global network (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has decreased modestly from $75.80 to $73.80, reflecting a more cautious view on short-term upside.
• Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 8.09% to 8.32%. This indicates higher perceived risk or required return in valuation models.
• Revenue Growth estimates are less negative, changing from -9.36% to -8.99%. This suggests slightly improved outlooks for top-line performance.
• Net Profit Margin has edged down from 8.08% to 7.86%, pointing to mildly reduced expectations for profitability.
• Future P/E multiples have contracted marginally, moving from 14.05x to 13.99x. This implies a minor decrease in valuation relative to projected earnings.