Update shared on16 Sep 2025
Fair value Increased 4.19%Cleveland-Cliffs’ consensus price target has increased to $11.31 as improved cost and efficiency post-Q2, potential share gains in auto steel from tariffs and onshoring, and supportive trade policies offset soft underlying demand and future supply concerns.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts note improved risk/reward for Cleveland-Cliffs post-Q2 earnings, citing better cost and efficiency performance.
- Potential for share gains in higher-margin auto steel on the back of S-232 tariffs and onshoring trends is expected to benefit the company.
- Recent and potential changes in Canadian steel trade policy and U.S. tariffs are anticipated to provide near-term pricing support, though impact may be lagged.
- Increased domestic supply projected in 2026, with demand seen improving by 2027, contribute to a more positive medium-term outlook.
- Bearish analysts caution that despite tariff-driven near-term price benefits, underlying demand remains soft and potential new trade deals could limit further pricing upside by year-end.
What's in the News
- Canada is expected to remove many retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products but will likely maintain 25% import taxes on U.S. steel and aluminum, affecting steel companies like Cleveland-Cliffs (Bloomberg, 2025-08-22).
- The Trump administration expanded steel and aluminum tariffs by adding 407 derivative product codes subject to 50% duties, impacting Cleveland-Cliffs and peers (Reuters, 2025-08-17).
- Cleveland-Cliffs signed new multi-year, fixed-price steel supply contracts with several U.S. automakers, including GM, to mitigate inflation and tariff risks, extending beyond the usual one-year term (Bloomberg, 2025-08-15).
- New U.S. tariffs imposed on dozens of countries—up to 50% for Brazil and 35% for Canada—could influence Cleveland-Cliffs’ international competitiveness and supply chains (Reuters, 2025-08-01).
- Global steel overproduction is projected to reach 721 million tons by 2027, but no significant production cuts are planned, sustaining competitive pressures for Cleveland-Cliffs (NYT, 2025-07-25).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Cleveland-Cliffs
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $10.86 to $11.31.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Cleveland-Cliffs has significantly fallen from 6.8% per annum to 5.9% per annum.
- The Future P/E for Cleveland-Cliffs has risen slightly from 12.33x to 12.94x.
Disclaimer
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