Cleveland-Cliffs' analyst price target has increased from $11.57 to $12.17, as analysts point to improving risk and reward following stronger operating efficiency and potential benefits from ongoing industry tariffs and trade policy shifts.

Analyst Commentary

Analyst reactions to Cleveland-Cliffs’ recent performance and industry trends have been mixed, reflecting both optimism about the company’s trajectory and some caution about underlying challenges.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts highlight Cleveland-Cliffs’ improved operating efficiency and cost management as key factors enhancing near-term valuation.
• Ongoing tariffs and supportive trade policies are seen as providing near-term support to U.S. steel prices, which could benefit the company’s bottom line.
• There is potential for share gains across Cleveland-Cliffs' higher-margin auto platform, attributed to domestic onshoring and sustained trade measures.
• Anticipated changes in North American steel trade policy could present incremental earnings opportunities for the company over the coming years.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts remain cautious about overall steel demand, noting that potential price support may be offset by softer end-market consumption.
• Medium-term risks include rising domestic supply, which could pressure prices and margins starting in 2026.
• There are concerns about Cleveland-Cliffs’ global competitiveness in an environment where U.S. policy advantages may decrease over time.
• Uncertainties in policy execution and the timing of tariff benefits could create volatility in the company’s growth outlook.

What's in the News

• Canada will remove retaliatory tariffs on several U.S. products that align with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, but is likely to maintain 25% import taxes on U.S. steel and aluminum, as well as tariffs on U.S. automobiles (Bloomberg).
• The Trump administration has added 407 derivative product codes to the list of items subject to 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (Reuters).
• Cleveland-Cliffs has signed new fixed-price contracts to supply steel to multiple U.S. automakers for up to three years, signaling efforts to secure supply amid ongoing tariffs and inflation concerns (Bloomberg).
• President Trump imposed tariffs on exports from dozens of trading partners, including substantial new duties for Canada, Brazil, India, Taiwan, and Switzerland (Reuters).
• Global steel production is expected to significantly outpace demand, with excess steel output projected to reach 721 million tons by 2027. Countries remain reluctant to reduce production capacity (The New York Times).

Valuation Changes

• Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $11.57 to $12.17, indicating a modest uplift in expected fair value.
• Discount Rate has declined marginally from 10.22% to 10.14%, reflecting a small reduction in perceived risk or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth projections are essentially unchanged, moving from 5.81% to 5.81%.
• Net Profit Margin has decreased slightly from 2.63% to 2.56%, suggesting a minor compression in projected profitability.
• Future P/E ratio has increased from 13.36x to 14.40x, which signals a moderately higher valuation on forward earnings expectations.