Loading...
Back to narrative

AU: Rising Gold Output Will Likely Fail To Justify Current Share Price

Rising Compliance And Cost Burdens Will Threaten Gold Mine Prospects

AU logo
AU
AnalystLowTarget
Not Invested
Published 04 May 2025

Update shared on 15 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 76%
Previous
n/a
n/a
AnalystLowTarget's Fair Value
n/a
Loading
1Y
268.0%
7D
0.1%

Analysts have significantly raised their price target for AngloGold Ashanti from approximately $38 to about $67 per share, citing expectations for stronger revenue growth, improved profit margins, a slightly higher required return, and a modestly lower future earnings multiple.

What's in the News

  • AngloGold Ashanti increased its interim dividend to 91 US cents per share for the three months ended 30 September 2025, indicating confidence in cash generation and balance sheet strength (Key Developments).
  • The company reported third quarter 2025 gold production of 768,000 ounces, up from 657,000 ounces a year earlier, reflecting stronger operational performance (Key Developments).
  • For the first nine months of 2025, gold production rose to 2,292,000 ounces from 1,911,000 ounces in the prior year period, highlighting sustained volume growth across the portfolio (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen significantly from $38.00 per share to $67.00 per share, reflecting a materially higher intrinsic valuation.
  • The discount rate has increased slightly from 7.53 percent to 8.22 percent, indicating a modest rise in the required return applied to future cash flows.
  • The revenue growth assumption has been raised sharply from approximately 1.88 percent to about 8.99 percent annually, implying much stronger expected top line expansion.
  • The net profit margin forecast has improved moderately from roughly 31.07 percent to around 37.69 percent, signaling expectations for better profitability.
  • The future P/E multiple has been reduced modestly from about 11.62x to approximately 10.31x, suggesting a more conservative valuation multiple on projected earnings.

Have other thoughts on AngloGold Ashanti?

Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.

Create Narrative

Disclaimer

AnalystLowTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystLowTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystLowTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.