ASPN: Reduced Guidance And Higher Discount Rate Will Present Long-Term Upside Opportunity

Aspen Aerogels' consensus analyst price target has been reduced by approximately $4.02 per share, as analysts temper their assumptions for revenue growth and profit margins, while also applying a slightly higher discount rate and multiple to future earnings.

What's in the News

• Aspen Aerogels lowered its full year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $270 million to $280 million, down from prior expectations of $297 million to $317 million (Key Developments).
• The company now anticipates a larger net loss for 2025, guiding to a range of $342 million to $334 million compared with its previous outlook of $317 million to $307 million (Key Developments).
• Guidance for 2025 basic loss per share has been revised to $4.15 to $4.05, versus earlier guidance of $3.86 to $3.73 (Key Developments).
• For the fourth quarter of 2025, Aspen Aerogels issued revenue guidance of $40 million to $50 million, providing a more detailed near term outlook (Key Developments).
• The company slightly raised its 2025 impairment estimate for property, plant and equipment to $287.6 million from $287.567 million, signaling a modest adjustment to expected write downs (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Reduced significantly from approximately $14.00 to about $9.98 per share, reflecting lower growth and margin assumptions.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from roughly 7.91 percent to about 8.54 percent, increasing the rate at which future cash flows are discounted.
• Revenue Growth: Lowered substantially from about 12.33 percent to roughly 6.27 percent, indicating a more cautious outlook on top line expansion.
• Net Profit Margin: Trimmed modestly from around 18.75 percent to about 16.00 percent, signaling expectations of somewhat weaker profitability.
• Future P/E: Increased moderately from roughly 13.83x to about 15.82x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple on projected earnings.