Update shared on28 Aug 2025
Fair value Increased 1.46%Upward revisions to Albemarle's price target reflect improved sentiment as China lithium mine closures introduce upside risk to lithium prices and temper bearish views, resulting in a consensus analyst price target increase from $83.79 to $85.01.
Analyst Commentary
- Recent China lithium mine site closures have introduced upside risk to lithium prices, challenging the prolonged bearish outlook for Albemarle.
- Bearish analysts are moderating their negative stance, citing potential for more stable or improving lithium price dynamics.
- Bullish analysts attribute upward price target revisions to expectations that supply-side actions in China will support higher lithium prices.
- Some analysts maintain neutral outlooks despite upward price target adjustments, reflecting caution on near-term fundamentals.
- Downgrades from previously bullish stances suggest concerns remain over Albemarle's sector positioning and underlying market volatility.
What's in the News
- Chilean authorities have launched an investigation into an accident at Albemarle’s La Negra lithium processing facility, following a burst acid pipe and labor complaints (Reuters).
- Albemarle has stated that it does not expect the Chile incident to impact its sales (Bloomberg).
- Dr. Cameron Perks (Benchmark Mineral Intelligence) reports a major safety incident at Albemarle’s Chilean lithium operations, with partial production suspension and knock-on effects for the lithium market.
- Albemarle Chile contributes about 24% of national 2025 lithium carbonate equivalent output, with the current disruption potentially affecting approximately 7% of Chile’s remaining annual supply, or 3% of China’s annual demand (Perks/Benchmark).
- News of the incident has coincided with increased lithium carbonate futures prices in China, reflecting market sensitivity to supply shocks (Perks/Benchmark).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Albemarle
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $83.79 to $85.01.
- The Future P/E for Albemarle remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 11.66x to 11.83x.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Albemarle remained effectively unchanged, at 11.5% per annum.
Disclaimer
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