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PEN: Clinical Trial Outcomes And 2025 Guidance Will Shape Balanced Outlook

STORM-PE Trial And New Therapies Will Expand Global Reach

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PEN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 27 Aug 2024

Update shared on 13 Dec 2025

Fair value Increased 1.03%
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AnalystConsensusTarget's Fair Value
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1Y
27.1%
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3.8%

Analysts have nudged their price target on Penumbra slightly higher, to approximately $310 per share from about $307, citing a modestly lower discount rate and a higher long term earnings multiple that more than offset a small trim to projected profit margins.

What's in the News

  • Penumbra raised its 2025 total revenue guidance to a range of $1.375 billion to $1.380 billion, implying 15% to 16% growth over 2024, while reiterating full year gross and operating margin targets (company guidance).
  • The company reported completion of its existing $100 million share repurchase program, having bought back 517,763 shares, or about 1.33% of shares outstanding, with no additional shares repurchased in the July to September 2025 tranche (company buyback update).
  • Additional data from the STORM-PE randomized controlled trial showed that computer assisted vacuum thrombectomy with anticoagulation significantly improved thrombus burden reduction, cardiopulmonary parameters, and 90 day functional outcomes versus anticoagulation alone in intermediate high risk pulmonary embolism patients, with comparable safety through 90 days (STORM-PE trial, VIVA 2025 and Circulation).
  • Earlier STORM-PE results presented at the TCT scientific symposium highlighted that mechanical thrombectomy using computer assisted vacuum thrombectomy plus anticoagulation achieved superior reduction in right heart strain versus anticoagulation alone in acute intermediate high risk pulmonary embolism patients across 22 international sites (STORM-PE trial, TCT/CRF).

Valuation Changes

  • The fair value estimate has risen slightly, moving from approximately $307 to about $310 per share.
  • The discount rate has declined marginally, easing from roughly 7.74% to about 7.71%.
  • The revenue growth assumption is effectively unchanged, remaining around 13.7% annually.
  • The net profit margin forecast has been trimmed modestly, easing from about 15.0% to roughly 14.6%.
  • The future P/E multiple has risen moderately, increasing from about 53.4x to approximately 55.4x earnings.

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