LFMD: Telehealth Focus And Weight Management Reset Will Drive Future Margin Expansion

Analysts have trimmed LifeMD's average price target by several dollars per share, citing Q3 revenue and EBITDA misses, increased competitive pressure in weight management, and revised revenue guidance that temper near term expectations despite a still constructive long term outlook.

Analyst Commentary

Bullish analysts acknowledge the near term disappointment but stress that the core telehealth and pharmacy platform remains intact, with structural drivers that can support renewed growth once competitive and reimbursement dynamics in weight management stabilize.

Bearish analysts, meanwhile, are focused on execution risks in the weight management business and the potential for continued estimate revisions if competitive intensity persists or if the company fails to fully offset lost volume with higher quality, better reimbursed offerings.

Bullish Takeaways

• Despite lower price targets, bullish analysts are maintaining positive ratings, arguing that the current valuation already reflects near term headwinds and offers upside if management delivers on revised 2025 revenue targets.
• Several note that LifeMD is now a more focused pure play telehealth and pharmacy business after divesting noncore assets, which they view as improving capital allocation and long term margin potential.
• Some see the current competitive pressure in weight management as cyclical, expecting that regulatory scrutiny of lower cost compounded GLP 1 offerings will eventually favor higher quality, compliant platforms, supporting reacceleration in growth into 2026.
• A view among more optimistic commentators is that Q3 still showed underlying operational progress, suggesting that once the competitive overhang eases, the company can return to a more scalable growth and EBITDA trajectory.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts are emphasizing the top and bottom line misses in Q3 as evidence that execution risk is rising, leading to lower revenue and EBITDA forecasts and reduced valuation multiples.
• There is concern that aggressive discounting from compounded GLP 1 marketers could pressure LifeMD's weight management volumes and pricing for longer than initially expected, limiting visibility into growth.
• Revised guidance for the standalone telehealth business is viewed as a signal that management may have previously underestimated competitive intensity, increasing the probability of further estimate cuts if conditions do not improve.
• Some see the reset in targets from double digit price levels to mid single digits as indicative that the risk reward has become more balanced, with less room for execution missteps before additional downside is priced in.

What's in the News

• Issued new fourth quarter and full year 2025 revenue guidance, projecting Q4 revenue of $45 million to $46 million and full year 2025 revenue of $192 million to $193 million, implying 24 percent growth versus 2024 (Corporate Guidance).
• Disclosed it will be unable to file its next Form 10 Q with the SEC by the required deadline, signaling a delay in quarterly financial reporting (Delayed SEC Filings).
• Expanded its collaboration with Novo Nordisk to offer Ozempic, a GLP 1 therapy for type 2 diabetes, at $499 per month for eligible patients, with integrated access to all FDA approved dose strengths through LifeMD's virtual care platform and NovoCare Pharmacy (Client Announcements).
• Enhanced its affiliated pharmacy with advanced non sterile compounding capabilities for oral and topical medications, enabling customized therapies, operational savings, and reduced reliance on third party providers across key service areas such as men's and women's health and dermatology (Business Expansions).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at $9.25 per share, indicating no adjustment to the intrinsic value estimate despite updated assumptions.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from approximately 8.26 percent to 8.30 percent, reflecting a modestly higher perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
• Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged, remaining around negative 1.28 percent, suggesting stable expectations for the top line trajectory in the current model.
• Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at roughly 7.11 percent, indicating no material change in long term profitability assumptions.
• Future P/E: Increased marginally from about 39.8x to 39.9x, implying a slightly higher valuation multiple applied to projected earnings.