LFMD: Weight Management Headwinds Will Set Up Margin Expansion And Rebound Potential

Analysts have trimmed their consolidated price target for LifeMD to approximately $9.25 from about $10.63, reflecting reduced revenue growth expectations amid near term competitive pressures in weight management and updated 2025 guidance, partly offset by improved profit margin assumptions and a lower valuation multiple.

Analyst Commentary

Analysts are broadly recalibrating their LifeMD models in light of softer than expected Q3 results and updated 2025 guidance, with price targets now clustering in the mid single to low double digit range. The latest notes highlight a mix of confidence in the long term telehealth opportunity and concern around execution risks in the weight management segment.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts view LifeMD as a focused telehealth and pharmacy platform following the divestiture of non core assets. They believe this should improve strategic clarity and long term execution.
• Several reports emphasize that recent Q3 results still showed operational progress, supporting the case for margin expansion and more efficient customer acquisition over time.
• Some bullish analysts argue that competitive pressure from lower cost compounded GLP 1 offerings is likely transitory. They expect growth to reaccelerate beyond 2025 as the market rationalizes and quality and regulatory compliance are better rewarded.
• Despite reduced price targets, Buy rated views persist where analysts see the current pullback as over discounting near term volatility relative to LifeMD's medium term growth and profitability potential.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts are focused on Q3 revenue and EBITDA shortfalls versus expectations, which raise questions about the reliability of near term forecasts and the pace at which LifeMD can scale profitably.
• Increased competition from compounded GLP 1 marketers in weight management is seen as a structural risk to growth and pricing power, pressuring valuation multiples until visibility improves.
• Some cautious views point to the lowered 2025 revenue outlook for the standalone telehealth business, noting that guidance resets can cap upside and keep the shares range bound in the near term.
• Neutral stances generally reflect concern that continuing headwinds and revenue lumpiness could delay the timeline for achieving the margin profile needed to justify prior, higher price targets.

What's in the News

• Issued new guidance calling for fourth quarter 2025 revenue of $45 million to $46 million and full year 2025 revenue of $192 million to $193 million, implying about 24% year over year growth versus 2024 (Corporate guidance)
• Disclosed it will be unable to file its next Form 10 Q with the SEC by the required deadline, signaling a delay in quarterly financial reporting (Delayed SEC filing)
• Expanded its collaboration with Novo Nordisk to offer Ozempic (semaglutide) to eligible patients at $499 per month through an integrated NovoCare pharmacy pathway within LifeMD's virtual care platform (Client announcement)
• Broadened its affiliated pharmacy capabilities to include advanced non sterile compounding for oral and topical medications, increasing vertical integration and reducing reliance on third party pharmacies (Business expansion)

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Reduced from approximately $10.63 to $9.25 per share. This reflects a modest downward revision in the equity valuation.
• Discount Rate: Increased slightly from about 8.23% to 8.26%. This implies a marginally higher required return and risk perception.
• Revenue Growth: Shifted materially from a projected increase of roughly 4.1% to a decline of about 1.3%. This indicates a significantly weaker top line outlook.
• Net Profit Margin: Raised from an estimated 5.1% to roughly 7.1%. This signals improved expectations for profitability and operating efficiency.
• Future P/E: Lowered from around 49.9x to 39.8x. This points to a notable compression in the valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.