Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 2.15%Turning Point Brands' fair value estimate has been raised to $118.75, up $2.50. Analysts cite accelerating revenue growth and ongoing success in the nicotine pouch category for their more optimistic outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst commentary reflects continued optimism regarding Turning Point Brands' growth trajectory with some areas of cautious observation.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts have raised their price targets, which reflects higher confidence in the company’s execution and long-term market positioning.
- Rapid growth in the nicotine pouch category is expected, with market size projections that could potentially surpass $10 billion by 2030.
- The company’s FRE brand has expanded its presence in convenience stores, which indicates robust retail momentum.
- Sustained e-commerce performance by the ALP brand, now entering retail channels, is seen as a positive indicator for diversified revenue streams.
Bearish Takeaways
- Despite strong recent sales and EBITDA growth, some analysts caution that continued outperformance is necessary to justify the higher valuation.
- Market estimates for nicotine pouches, while promising, involve execution risks due to evolving regulatory environments.
- Expanding the retail footprint, while positive, introduces operational complexities that the company must navigate effectively.
What's in the News
- Turning Point Brands raised its full-year 2025 sales guidance for Modern Oral products to $125.0 to $130.0 million, up from the previous range of $100.0 to $110.0 million (Key Developments).
- The company announced an increase to its equity buyback plan, adding $100 million in authorization and bringing the total remaining to $283.2 million (Key Developments).
- Launch of FRE Watermelon, expanding the FRE nicotine pouch lineup to include five strengths and targeting new consumer segments in the fruit-flavored niche (Key Developments).
- Stoker's introduced Fine Cut Wintergreen in a 1.2-ounce can, available in 15 states, expanding the moist smokeless tobacco portfolio and distribution (Key Developments).
- Completion of the share repurchase program announced in 2020, with a total of 2,471,405 shares bought back, representing 13.29% of shares for $83.01 million (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- The Fair Value Estimate has increased slightly from $116.25 to $118.75 per share.
- The Discount Rate edged higher, rising from 7.74% to 7.77%.
- The Revenue Growth projection has increased considerably, from 12.35% to 23.55%.
- The Net Profit Margin estimate has decreased modestly, from 14.61% to 14.38%.
- The Future Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio forecast has declined significantly, from 38.26x to 28.94x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.