The analyst price target for Molson Coors Beverage has been revised downward by approximately $2 to around $51. Analysts cite continued category weakness, moderating growth expectations, and a lack of near-term catalysts for improvement.

Analyst Commentary

Recent analyst reports reflect a cautious outlook for Molson Coors Beverage, with lowered price targets and mixed views on the company's near-term trajectory. While some factors offer potential support for the stock, ongoing industry headwinds and uncertain catalysts weigh on sentiment.

Bullish Takeaways

• Despite guidance revisions, updated expectations remain within the anticipated range. This suggests that much of the negative scenario may already be reflected in consensus.
• Valuation is considered undemanding at current share levels, which could indicate limited downside and the potential for upside if sentiment or fundamentals become more favorable.
• Continued resilience in the U.S. consumer market could provide support. Any positive shift may serve as a near-term catalyst for improved performance.

Bearish Takeaways

• Category weakness and share losses are expected to persist, reducing the likelihood of a near-term turnaround in growth or profitability.
• Recent quarterly performance was described as "weak," leading to reduced forward guidance and reinforcing concerns about execution risk.
• Lack of clear near-term catalysts makes a rebound unlikely without a significant change in market dynamics or consumer behavior.
• Ongoing industry challenges suggest further moderation in growth expectations. This raises questions about the timing and extent of any potential recovery.

What's in the News

• U.S. alcohol exports to Canada sharply declined, with U.S. distilled spirits down 62% and wine down 67%, following a Canadian boycott in response to trade tensions (The Wall Street Journal).
• A Gallup survey shows U.S. alcohol consumption at a record low, with most Americans now viewing even moderate drinking as harmful (Reuters).
• Molson Coors Beverage Company reported significant impairment charges in Q3 2025, including $3,645.7 million in goodwill impairment and $273.9 million in intangible asset impairments.
• The company revised its 2025 guidance and now expects net sales to decline by 3% to 4% on a constant currency basis, targeting the low end of that range.
• Molson Coors appointed Rahul Goyal, chief strategy officer, as incoming CEO effective October 1, 2025. He will succeed Gavin Hattersley, who will stay on in an advisory capacity through year-end 2025.

Valuation Changes

• The Fair Value Estimate has decreased from $53.33 to $51.24, reflecting a modest downward revision in analyst assessments.
• The Discount Rate remains unchanged at 6.78%, indicating no shift in the perceived risk profile.
• Revenue Growth projections have been lowered significantly from 0.46% to 0.33%, showing reduced expectations for top-line expansion.
• The Net Profit Margin forecast has declined from 9.45% to 8.85%, signifying a slight dip in profitability outlook.
• The Future P/E ratio has risen slightly from 10.45x to 10.83x, suggesting somewhat higher valuation relative to projected earnings.