Coffee Pricing And Snack Rationalization Will Support Future Strength

Analysts have modestly raised J.M. Smucker’s price target to $116.00, citing improved coffee segment prospects and sector favoritism by JPMorgan, while lingering concerns over weak FY26 earnings guidance, tariff headwinds, and slow organic growth temper enthusiasm.

Analyst Commentary

• Bullish analysts believe J.M. Smucker will benefit from improved coffee fundamentals and higher volume forecasts, supporting better coffee sales and profits.
• JPMorgan highlights J.M. Smucker as a top pick in the food producers sector, despite broader pressures such as slower center-store category growth and market share losses.
• Bearish analysts point to J.M. Smucker’s FY26 earnings guidance, which was significantly below consensus, forecasting an 11% year-over-year EPS decline even after excluding tariff impacts.
• Tariff-related headwinds, particularly due to Brazilian imports, are seen as a potential negative offset against gains from better coffee elasticity.
• Ongoing weak consumption trends and modest organic sales growth projections (about 1%) prompt some analysts to advise selectivity and maintain Hold or Neutral ratings despite modest price target increases.

What's in the News

• Stifel raised its price target on J.M. Smucker to $110 from $106, maintaining a Hold rating, and remains cautious on food stocks due to ongoing weak consumption trends; for 2025, they estimate 1% organic sales growth and a 15% average EPS decline in the sector (Periodicals).
• The J.M. Smucker Co. increased its quarterly dividend to $1.10 per share, marking its 24th consecutive year of dividend growth, with payment scheduled for September 2, 2025 (Key Developments).
• The company reaffirmed FY26 sales guidance, projecting net sales growth of 2–4% (including divestitures) and comparable net sales growth of 3.5–5.5%, driven by price increases but partially offset by lower volumes; EPS guidance is $5.59 to $6.59 (Key Developments).
• J.M. Smucker committed to removing FD&C colors from all consumer food products by year-end 2027, with immediate focus on certain sugar-free spreads, ice cream toppings, and Hostess products; products sold to K-12 schools will be fully FD&C color-free by the 2026/27 school year (Key Developments).
• The company reported a goodwill impairment charge of $867.3 million for the quarter ended April 30, 2025, and disclosed no share repurchases in the recent quarter, with 54.31% of the original buyback authorization completed since 2006 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

Summary of Valuation Changes for J. M. Smucker

• The Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $113.53 to $116.00.
• The Future P/E for J. M. Smucker has risen slightly from 16.22x to 16.57x.
• The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for J. M. Smucker remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 2.4% per annum to 2.3% per annum.