Update shared on 11 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Post Holdings to approximately $123.22, reflecting slightly improved profit margin expectations despite a marginal increase in the assumed discount rate and a small downward revision to future valuation multiples.
What's in the News
- Board of Directors authorizes a new share repurchase plan on November 25, 2025, enabling Post Holdings to buy back up to $500 million of its stock over a two year period, with repurchased shares to be held as treasury stock (company announcement).
- Completion of a buyback tranche from August 27, 2025 to November 19, 2025, with 2,059,397 shares repurchased, representing 3.79% of shares outstanding, for $217.4 million under the August 29, 2025 program (company filing).
- Earlier tranche completed from July 1, 2025 to August 28, 2025, with 1,511,470 shares repurchased, representing 2.78% of shares, for $161.85 million. This brought cumulative repurchases under the February 6, 2025 plan to 2,824,091 shares, or 5.12%, for $308.63 million (company filing).
- Fourth quarter 2025 results include a $29.8 million goodwill impairment charge, attributed to narrowing price gaps with private label competitors, distribution losses, and declining profitability, after no goodwill impairments in fiscal 2024 (earnings disclosure).
- Board adopts the ninth amended and restated bylaws effective October 16, 2025, allowing shareholders holding at least 25% of outstanding voting stock to call a special meeting (corporate governance update).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Unchanged at approximately $123.22 per share, indicating that the overall valuation remains stable.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from about 7.49 percent to 7.55 percent, reflecting a modestly higher required return.
- Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at around 1.12 percent, signaling steady expectations for top line growth.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased slightly from roughly 5.51 percent to 5.58 percent, pointing to marginally improved profitability assumptions.
- Future P/E: Decreased slightly from about 13.49x to 13.35x, suggesting a modestly lower valuation multiple on future earnings.
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