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NOMD: Stable Margins And New Leadership Will Support Future Earnings Upside

Analysts Lower Nomad Foods Price Target Amid Mixed Outlook and Reduced Growth Forecasts

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NOMD
AnalystConsensusTarget
Not Invested
Published 21 Nov 2024

Update shared on 18 Dec 2025

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Analysts have raised their price target on Nomad Foods by a modest amount to reflect slightly lower long term discount rate assumptions and stable profit margin expectations, which supports a marginally higher valuation outlook in currency terms.

What's in the News

  • Nomad Foods reaffirmed earnings guidance for 2025, indicating results are expected near the low end of existing ranges. (Company guidance)
  • The company forecasts full year 2025 organic revenue toward the bottom of its flat to minus 2 percent range, signaling a cautious top line outlook. (Company guidance)
  • Nomad Foods announced that Dominic Brisby will become Chief Executive Officer on January 1, 2026, following a transition period starting November 3, 2025. (Executive changes)
  • Outgoing CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker will retire from the CEO role at year end 2025 but remain on the Board as a non executive Director from January 2026. (Executive changes)
  • The leadership transition follows a period in which Nomad Foods delivered nine consecutive years of revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth through 2024, with adjusted EPS expected to roughly double between 2016 and 2025. (Executive changes)

Valuation Changes

  • Fair Value Estimate unchanged at €16.79 per share, reflecting stable long term assumptions overall.
  • Discount Rate risen slightly from 7.88 percent to 8.00 percent, implying a marginally higher required return on equity.
  • Revenue Growth effectively unchanged at approximately minus 5.4 percent per year, indicating a continued expectation of modest top line contraction in real terms.
  • Net Profit Margin stable at about 8.71 percent, suggesting no material change in long term profitability expectations.
  • Future P/E edged down slightly from 8.74x to 8.69x, pointing to a modestly lower multiple applied to forward earnings.

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