Update shared on 17 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.60%Analysts have modestly lowered their price targets for McCormick, citing ongoing headwinds from rising tariffs and commodity costs. The consensus fair value estimate has dipped by less than $1 to approximately $76.92.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research reflects a nuanced mix of optimistic and cautious sentiment around McCormick’s outlook. While price targets have broadly shifted downward, analysts remain divided on the path forward for the company’s valuation and growth prospects.
Bullish Takeaways- Several bullish analysts continue to see McCormick as a long-term structural winner in the food space, citing favorable category and geographic exposure.
- Growth in sales volume and category strength has persisted, demonstrating resilience despite a challenging consumer environment.
- The outlook for the key fourth quarter is described as encouraging, with expectations for a solid holiday season and stabilization or modest improvement in gross margins.
- Recent share pullbacks are viewed as potential attractive entry points for long-term investors, enhancing the company's value proposition.
- Bearish analysts cite rising tariffs and commodity costs as significant headwinds, which have led to downward revisions to profit forecasts and price targets.
- There is lingering uncertainty about how price elasticity will affect demand, especially as the company looks ahead to 2026.
- Some note that pressure on the Flavor Solutions segment continues, with larger industry players facing ongoing sales declines that are impacting McCormick's results.
- Adjusted gross margin contraction and concerns over the range of possible earnings outcomes for fiscal 2026 are key reasons behind many of the more neutral or cautious ratings.
What's in the News
- McCormick has partnered again with Milk Bar and chef Christina Tosi to launch a limited-edition Eggnog English To coffee Cookie, available at Milk Bar locations from November 28 to December 31, 2025, with giveaways on National Cookie Day (Key Developments).
- The McCormick Gourmet Collection received its first major packaging redesign in over 30 years, featuring gold screwcap lids, transparent glass bottles and new labels, rolling out nationwide through January 2026 (Key Developments).
- McCormick updated its financial guidance for fiscal year 2025, lowering the expected earnings per share range to $2.95 to $3.00 and adjusting operating income growth forecasts downward (Key Developments).
- The company repurchased 37,089 shares between June and August 2025, completing more than 8 million shares bought back since 2015 and totaling $786.19 million (Key Developments).
- Frank's RedHot, a McCormick brand, teamed up with Huer Foods to launch Spicy Gummy Bears in Canada, expanding into the "swicy" (sweet and spicy) category to meet growing consumer demand (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Fair Value Estimate has decreased slightly, moving from $77.38 to $76.92.
- Discount Rate has risen moderately, increasing from 6.78% to 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth expectations have inched upward, rising from 4.62% to approximately 4.65%.
- Net Profit Margin has declined marginally, decreasing from 12.83% to around 12.79%.
- Future Price-to-Earnings Ratio is virtually unchanged, moving up from 25.42x to 25.44x.
Disclaimer
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