Update shared on 14 Nov 2025
Analysts have lifted their price targets for Lamb Weston Holdings, with increases ranging from $2 to $3 per share. This is based on improving volume growth, gross margins, and signs of renewed commercial momentum, which are supporting a more optimistic outlook for the company's recovery.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research reflects a mix of optimism and caution regarding Lamb Weston Holdings' outlook and valuation. While bullish analysts note accelerating volume growth and improved commercial momentum, there remain some concerns around the sustainability of margins and recovering prior performance levels.
Bullish Takeaways- Volume growth has shown sequential improvement in North America, a key driver of upward price target revisions.
- Gross margins exceeded expectations in the latest quarter, indicating potential for ongoing profitability improvements.
- Management's success in securing new business wins and restarting previously curtailed production capacity suggest that commercial relationships are strengthening.
- Bullish analysts see renewed price and mix contributions as a catalyst for future sales growth, supporting a constructive case for valuation recovery.
- Despite earnings beats, management has maintained fiscal year guidance, highlighting ongoing headwinds from pricing and mix that could cap further upside.
- The full restoration of both volume and margins to prior highs is viewed as an ongoing challenge, with execution risks remaining.
- Not all analysts are convinced of a seamless recovery, with some expressing caution about the sector-wide pressures facing food producers, including market share losses and changing consumer trends.
- Major institutions such as JPMorgan have assumed coverage with a neutral stance and a lower price target, emphasizing uncertainty around the pace of earnings recovery and sector dynamics.
What's in the News
- Lamb Weston Holdings, Inc. has officially opened a new 40,000-square-meter production facility in Mar del Plata, Buenos Aires, Argentina. The plant uses advanced technology and can process 200 million pounds of potatoes annually, producing over 100 varieties of frozen potato products. This facility is projected to export about 80% of its output to Brazil and other Latin American markets, create 250 direct jobs, and generate approximately 3,000 indirect jobs. Lamb Weston is partnering with over 100 local producers for raw materials (Key Developments).
- The company completed the repurchase of over 11.4 million shares, representing 7.92% of its outstanding shares, for a total value of $777.56 million under the ongoing buyback program announced in December 2018. The latest tranche accounted for 187,259 shares repurchased between May and August 2025 (Key Developments).
- Lamb Weston Holdings reaffirmed its earnings guidance for fiscal 2026, targeting net sales in constant currency between $6.35 billion and $6.55 billion. The guidance incorporates enacted tariffs but does not reflect potential impacts from future trade policy changes (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value remains unchanged at $66.00 per share.
- The Discount Rate has risen slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%.
- The Revenue Growth estimate is essentially stable, holding at approximately 1.77%.
- The Net Profit Margin is unchanged, steady at about 8.68%.
- The Future P/E has increased modestly, moving from 17.55x to 17.64x.
Disclaimer
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