Update shared on19 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.65%General Mills’ consensus price target was revised downward to $53.89 amid disappointing guidance and weak volume trends, as analysts factor in near-term EPS pressure from increased reinvestment and ongoing competitive headwinds, though some maintain a constructive longer-term outlook.
Analyst Commentary
- Guidance for FY26 and initial Q4 results have generally come in below street expectations, leading to EPS resets and lower price targets from several analysts.
- Weak volume trends, sluggish center store category growth, and market share pressures continue to weigh on outlook, though sequential improvements in volume share are being noted.
- Management’s heavier-than-anticipated reinvestment is viewed as a near-term drag on EPS, but is considered necessary for long-term improvement in volume and organic sales growth.
- Valuation concerns persist relative to peers given muted growth prospects, though bullish analysts view trimmed guidance as increasingly achievable and believe the company is building in sufficient cushion for delivery.
- Some analysts remain constructive based on solid brand portfolio and pricing power, and see investor sentiment as overly negative with potential for upside if execution around investment and pricing materializes.
What's in the News
- General Mills will host its 2025 Investor Day.
- The company completed the repurchase of 71.8 million shares (12.61% of shares outstanding) for $4.93 billion under its ongoing buyback program.
- FY2026 earnings guidance was reaffirmed, with expected organic net sales growth between -1% and +1%; inorganic factors (divestitures, FX, acquisitions, 53rd week) expected to reduce full-year net sales growth by ~4%.
- Announced $54 million investment to expand the James Ford Bell Technical Center, increasing pilot plant space by over 20% to accelerate R&D and innovation.
- Introduced multiple product launches and partnerships including Wheaties featuring Jalen Hurts, Wicked-inspired Pillsbury and Betty Crocker baking products, Progresso Pitmaster BBQ soups, pet nutrition expansion with Edgard & Cooper at PetSmart, and continued Cereal Training Camp promotions with NFL players.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for General Mills
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $54.80 to $53.89.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for General Mills has significantly risen from -0.8% per annum to -0.3% per annum.
- The Future P/E for General Mills has fallen from 15.85x to 15.03x.
Disclaimer
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