Update shared on 14 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Flowers Foods, citing a slightly higher assumed discount rate, stable revenue growth and profit margin expectations, and a marginally higher future P/E multiple that together support a valuation of approximately $12.71 per share.
What's in the News
- Completed a long-running share repurchase program, buying back a total of 73.3 million shares for $761.5 million since the buyback was announced in 2002 (company filing)
- Updated fiscal 2025 guidance, now expecting net sales of approximately $5.254 billion to $5.306 billion, reflecting 2.9% to 4.0% growth, with a partial-year Simple Mills contribution of $221 million to $223 million and EPS of $0.85 to $0.91 (company guidance)
- Provided guidance that, excluding the Simple Mills acquisition, net sales are projected between $5.033 billion and $5.083 billion, a decline of 1.4% to 0.4% year over year, slightly improved from prior expectations (company guidance)
- Announced the planned retirement of long-serving CFO Steve Kinsey at the end of 2025, with a formal search underway for his successor and Kinsey expected to remain in an advisory role during the transition (company announcement)
- Named D. Anthony Scaglione as incoming CFO effective January 1, 2026, who will assume responsibility for the company’s financial strategy and key finance functions, reporting to chairman and CEO Ryals McMullian (company announcement)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $12.71 per share, indicating no net impact from the updated assumptions on intrinsic valuation.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from about 6.96 percent to approximately 7.09 percent, reflecting a modestly higher required return applied to future cash flows.
- Revenue Growth: Effectively unchanged at about 1.07 percent, signaling a stable outlook for top line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Essentially flat at roughly 3.92 percent, suggesting no material revision to long term profitability expectations.
- Future P/E: Increased slightly from about 15.88x to approximately 15.94x, implying a marginally higher expected valuation multiple on forward earnings.
Have other thoughts on Flowers Foods?
Create your own narrative on this stock, and estimate its Fair Value using our Valuator tool.
Create NarrativeDisclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.