Update shared on 21 Nov 2025
Analysts have lowered their price target for Simply Good Foods from $36 to $27. They cite expectations for another dynamic earnings season in the U.S. consumer staples sector.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight Simply Good Foods' ability to navigate a challenging operating environment. This could lead to improved execution during the upcoming earnings season.
- Some point to the company's continued presence in the U.S. consumer staples sector as a sign of resilience and an opportunity for steady, long-term growth.
- Analysts note that maintaining a Neutral rating reflects confidence in the company's balanced performance, with no immediate signs of severe underperformance versus peers.
- Expectations for sustained consumer demand, even in dynamic market conditions, are seen as a positive factor supporting valuation stability going forward.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts are cautious regarding the lowered price target. This suggests concerns over growth momentum and the potential for earnings volatility.
- There are questions about the company’s ability to grow margins in a highly competitive and inflationary environment.
- Some view the Neutral rating and price target reduction as indicators of uncertainty around catalysts that could drive material upside in the near term.
- Execution risks remain a focus, particularly as broader consumer trends shift and cost pressures persist across the sector.
What's in the News
- Simply Good Foods completed the repurchase of 3,949,038 shares, representing 3.98% of outstanding shares, for $129 million under its existing buyback program. (Company Filing)
- The company announced an increase in its equity buyback plan, raising total authorization by $150 million to a new total of $300 million. (Company Filing)
- Fiscal year 2026 guidance released: net sales expected to range between -2% and +2% year-over-year, with gross margins forecasted to decline by 100 to 150 basis points. (Corporate Guidance)
- Quest Nutrition, a Simply Good Foods brand, launched Quest Bake Shop Chocolate Frosted Donuts. Each serving offers 14 grams of protein, 13 grams of fiber, and less than 1 gram of sugar. (Product Announcement)
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate remains unchanged at $29.70 per share, indicating stability in fundamental assessment.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 6.78% to 6.96%, reflecting updated market risk assumptions.
- Revenue Growth expectation is virtually flat, moving from 2.90% to 2.90% year over year.
- Net Profit Margin remains steady, holding at approximately 11.99% for forecasted periods.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased modestly from 18.32x to 18.41x, signaling a minor uptick in forward valuation multiples.
Disclaimer
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