Robust Pricing And Brand Collaborations Will Unlock Global Potential

Analysts have slightly reduced their average fair value estimate for Mondelez International by approximately $1 to $72.71. This decision reflects expectations for softer organic sales growth and recent adjustments to sales and earnings forecasts.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research reveals a divided outlook on Mondelez International, as varying price target changes and ratings adjustments reflect shifting opinions about the company's near- and long-term performance. Analysts highlight both opportunities and challenges that may influence Mondelez's valuation and growth trajectory over the coming quarters.

• Several bullish analysts maintain an Overweight or Buy rating, citing Mondelez's resilient organic sales growth in the face of industry headwinds.
• There is optimism surrounding the company's longer-term earnings potential, with some expecting a rebound in EPS growth by 2026 following current headwinds.
• Analysts believe Mondelez offers a compelling long-term value, especially as input costs could fall and valuation remains reasonable compared to peers.
• Robust EU pricing and a promising recovery in cocoa supplies may improve profitability, further supporting positive sentiment on future margins.

• Bearish analysts express concern regarding heightened price elasticity in Europe, which is weighing on sales growth and prompting downward adjustments to organic sales forecasts.
• Recent comments from management about increased elasticity and emerging market softness have led to expectations of Q3 earnings and sales coming in slightly below consensus.
• Volatility in cocoa costs remains a substantial risk, with uncertainty about the sustainability of lower input prices potentially impacting 2026 profitability.
• Some analysts are signaling caution amid a dynamic earnings season for U.S. consumer staples, reflecting broader sector challenges and ongoing earnings pressures.

What's in the News

• Mondelez is transitioning to natural food dyes in products that currently use synthetic colors, in response to changing consumer preferences and regulatory requirements (Reuters).
• The company announced the launch of SOUR PATCH KIDS Strips, which feature five popular flavors in a new chewy, ribbon-style candy format, with a national rollout beginning at Target stores in September.
• Mondelez is releasing a new CHIPS AHOY! x Stranger Things Limited-Edition Cookie, inspired by the Netflix series and accompanied by 1980s-style packaging and an augmented-reality fan game.
• The Board of Directors approved a 6 percent increase to the quarterly cash dividend, raising it to $0.50 per share, payable in October 2025.
• Mondelez reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance, projecting approximately 5 percent organic net revenue growth and a 10 percent decrease in adjusted EPS on a constant currency basis due to unprecedented cocoa cost inflation.

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate: Decreased marginally to $72.71 from $73.67. This reflects a slight reduction in the average analyst target.
• Revenue Growth: Lowered slightly to 4.62 percent from 4.81 percent. This indicates softer sales growth expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: Increased modestly to 11.04 percent from 11.02 percent. This suggests minor improvements in profitability outlook.
• Future P/E: Edged down to 22.12x from 22.34x as forecast adjustments impact projected valuation multiples.
• Discount Rate: Remained unchanged at 6.78 percent. This indicates a stable risk assessment by analysts.