Analysts have trimmed Freshpet’s price target to $84.56 due to decelerating sales growth, heightened competition, and muted near-term catalysts.
Analyst Commentary
- Ongoing deceleration in top-line growth trends undermining revenue momentum.
- Intensifying competition from both established brands and new market entrants, notably Chewy’s launch of a fresh dog food subscription.
- Regression analyses point to slower sequential sales growth in upcoming quarters, with projections below consensus estimates.
- Sector-wide pressures impacting food producers, including sluggish category growth and market share headwinds.
- Broad-based downward price target revisions reflecting updated modeling and muted near-term catalysts.
What's in the News
- TD Cowen lowered its price target on Freshpet to $63 from $72 and maintained a Hold rating, citing decelerating growth due to increasing competition and regression analysis indicating slower sequential growth (TD Cowen, 2025-08-25).
- Freshpet reduced its Q4 2025 sales growth estimate to 10%, below the consensus estimate of 13%, as reported by TD Cowen (TD Cowen, 2025-08-25).
- The company revised its full-year 2025 net sales growth guidance to a range of 13%-16%, down from the previous range of 15%-18% (Corporate Guidance - Lowered, 2025-08-04).
- Freshpet updated its long-term outlook by removing the previous 2027 net sales target of $1.8 billion to account for recent slower growth (Corporate Guidance - Lowered, 2025-08-04).
- Despite the revisions, Freshpet expects to deliver growth significantly above the overall dog food category (Corporate Guidance - Lowered, 2025-08-04).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Freshpet
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen slightly from $87.62 to $84.56.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for Freshpet has fallen from 13.7% per annum to 12.6% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for Freshpet remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.98% to 8.90%.
Disclaimer
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