Update shared on27 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.83%Freshpet’s consensus price target was revised down from $94.18 to $88.69 as analysts cite decelerating growth, rising competitive pressures (notably from Chewy’s fresh dog food), and a sector-wide valuation reset.
Analyst Commentary
- Growth deceleration signals: Sequential sales growth at Freshpet is slowing versus prior years, with Q4 sales growth expectations below consensus due to increased competition.
- Heightened competitive pressure: New entrants like Chewy's fresh dog food subscription intensify competition within the fresh pet food segment, potentially impacting Freshpet’s top-line momentum.
- Lowered sector expectations: Food producers, including Freshpet, face headwinds from slower overall category growth and market share losses, contributing to reduced price targets and a more cautious sector outlook.
- Valuation resets: Multiple analysts revised price targets downward to reflect both firm-specific growth moderation and broader consumer staples sector recalibration.
- Bullish analysts still see relative strength: Despite price target reductions, some maintain Overweight ratings, citing Freshpet’s ongoing (if decelerating) growth trajectory compared to sector peers.
What's in the News
- TD Cowen lowered Freshpet's price target to $63 from $72 and maintained a Hold rating, citing decelerating growth due to increased competition and weaker Q4 sales growth estimates (Periodicals).
- Regression analysis by TD Cowen indicates that while Freshpet is still growing, the rate of growth is slowing sequentially compared to previous years (Periodicals).
- Freshpet reduced its 2025 full-year net sales growth guidance to 13-16%, down from the prior expectation of 15-18% (Key Developments).
- The company also withdrew its 2027 net sales target of $1.8 billion, citing recent slower growth trends (Key Developments).
- Despite lowering guidance, Freshpet anticipates continuing to deliver sales growth significantly above the overall dog food category (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Freshpet
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has fallen from $94.18 to $88.69.
- The Future P/E for Freshpet has fallen from 41.10x to 38.26x.
- The Net Profit Margin for Freshpet remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.90% to 9.01%.
Disclaimer
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