Update shared on 09 Dec 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their price target on Riley Exploration Permian to $36.00, citing the company's differentiated New Mexico asset base and downstream readiness to support solid, profitable growth.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish analysts point to the company’s renewed coverage and raised price target as validation that its strategy in New Mexico is gaining traction and could justify a valuation re-rating if execution remains solid.
They highlight that Riley Exploration’s emphasis on acquiring underdeveloped areas positions it for multi-year inventory growth, which, if developed efficiently, can support above-average production and cash flow expansion.
Analysts also underscore the importance of the company’s downstream readiness, noting that having infrastructure and marketing channels in place reduces execution risk around volumes, supports margins, and strengthens confidence in the sustainability of profitable growth.
What's in the News
- Raised fourth quarter 2025 oil production guidance by 4% at the midpoint to 19,200 barrels per day, implying 5% quarter over quarter and 21% year over year growth versus fourth quarter 2024 (Key Developments).
- Increased full year 2025 oil production guidance by 2% at the midpoint to 17,100 barrels per day, targeting 13% year over year volume growth (Key Developments).
- Board approved a cash dividend of $0.40 per share, payable November 6, 2025 to shareholders of record October 21, 2025, which is a 5% increase from the prior $0.38 per share dividend (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate is unchanged at $46.00, indicating no revision to the long term intrinsic value assessment.
- The Discount Rate edged down slightly from 7.25% to approximately 7.23%, reflecting a marginally lower perceived risk profile or cost of capital.
- Revenue Growth was reduced modestly from about 13.1% to roughly 12.9%, suggesting slightly more conservative top line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin increased slightly from around 36.8% to about 37.9%, pointing to a modest improvement in expected profitability.
- Future P/E declined marginally from approximately 6.17x to about 6.02x, implying a slightly lower valuation multiple on forward earnings.
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