Update shared on 29 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 1.66%PBF Energy’s analyst price target was increased by $0.50 to $30.58. Analysts cited refining margin resilience, successful Martinez restart progress, and improving profitability as key reasons for the upgrade.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research highlights a mix of optimism and caution from analysts regarding PBF Energy's outlook. This reflects diverse opinions on key factors that may impact the company's valuation and growth trajectory.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have steadily raised PBF Energy's price targets, with several recent upgrades based on resilient refining margins and an improving sector environment.
- Progress on the Martinez refinery restart is widely viewed as a positive catalyst. This could enable PBF to capitalize on tighter regional fuel markets and boost profitability.
- Outperformance in recent earnings results has reinforced confidence in management’s execution and ability to manage volatility in industry margins.
- Bullish analysts anticipate ongoing industry tightness, particularly in distillate markets, may support refining margins through 2026, benefiting PBF’s long-term growth prospects.
- Bearish analysts maintain concerns around valuation and caution that current share prices may already reflect much of the positive outlook for refining margins.
- Uncertainty persists regarding the execution risk tied to the Martinez refinery restart and the timing of key insurance proceed tranches, which could delay incremental earnings contributions.
- Some forecasts, while above consensus, have been labeled "disappointing" compared to industry margin indicator expectations, leading to a more cautious stance on forward-looking assumptions.
- Downward rating adjustments highlight the potential for near-term volatility and ongoing debate over future supply-demand dynamics in global refining markets.
What's in the News
- PBF Energy provided production guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, expecting to produce between 860,000 and 910,000 barrels per day (Key Developments).
- The company completed a share repurchase program announced in December 2022. It repurchased 24,113,897 shares, representing 19.61% of outstanding shares, for approximately $1.02 billion (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen slightly from $30.08 to $30.58.
- Discount Rate has increased marginally from 7.39% to 7.47%.
- Revenue Growth projection has edged up from 4.20% to 4.21%.
- Net Profit Margin has improved from 1.29% to 1.44%.
- Future P/E ratio has declined from 10.23x to 9.25x.
Disclaimer
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