Update shared on 15 Nov 2025
Fair value Increased 7.44%The average analyst price target for PBF Energy has risen from $28.00 to $30.08. This reflects expectations for improved margins and successful execution in key markets according to recent analyst commentary.
Analyst Commentary
Recent street research shows a range of opinions among analysts regarding PBF Energy's strategic execution and sector outlook. Several have adjusted their price targets, reflecting ongoing shifts in refining market conditions and company-specific milestones.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts see PBF Energy as well positioned to benefit from tighter regional fuel markets, especially if operational restarts at key refineries proceed successfully.
- Improved earnings performance and reaffirmed timelines for major projects have contributed to increased confidence in PBF’s financial prospects.
- Refined product supply and demand outlooks suggest continued market tightness, which could result in margin upside through 2026.
- Some expect delivery of additional insurance proceeds to further strengthen PBF’s balance sheet in the near to medium term.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious on the long-term sustainability of high refining margins, highlighting concerns about potential volatility due to seasonality or valuation reversion.
- There are lingering doubts about whether revised earnings estimates will live up to earlier industry margin indicators, resulting in more conservative price targets from some firms.
- Downgrades have been issued on skepticism around supply and demand balance improvement, as well as questions over the pace and reliability of project execution.
What's in the News
- PBF Energy has provided production guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, forecasting volumes between 860,000 to 910,000 barrels per day (Key Developments).
- Joseph Marino has been promoted to Chief Financial Officer, effective October 1, 2025. Current CFO Karen B. Davis plans to retire from her executive role and rejoin the Board of Directors on the same date (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has risen from $28.00 to $30.08, reflecting increased expectations for the stock’s fair value.
- Discount Rate has decreased from 7.92% to 7.39%, indicating lower perceived risk in valuation models.
- Revenue Growth Estimate has fallen from 5.95% to 4.20%, suggesting more tempered expectations for top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin has edged up slightly from 1.27% to 1.29%, indicating modest optimism around profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio has increased from 9.22x to 10.23x, reflecting a higher multiple being applied to anticipated earnings.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.