Update shared on28 Sep 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.21%ONEOK’s consensus price target was modestly reduced as analysts cite near-term commodity price pressure and a diminished long-term growth outlook due to sector-wide infrastructure limits, partially offsetting positive integration efforts and resulting in a modest downward fair value revision to $94.94.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts expect investor focus to shift from growth to return of cash, emphasizing capital discipline, dividends, and buybacks as key valuation drivers.
- Anticipated Fed rate cuts could act as short-term catalysts for midstream stocks, yet overall macro and commodity volatility continues to temper valuations.
- Near-term commodity price headwinds are prompting downward revisions of adjusted EBITDA estimates, with 2026 seen as particularly challenging for hydrocarbon prices.
- Continued execution on integration and synergy capture from recent deals, and larger asset base diversification, are viewed positively but not enough to offset broader sector pressures.
- Industry-wide limited need for additional NGL infrastructure and growth opportunities beyond sanctioned projects is weighing down long-term growth outlooks.
What's in the News
- ONEOK, through its Matterhorn JV, has partnered with WhiteWater, MPLX, and Enbridge to proceed with construction of the Eiger Express Pipeline, a 450-mile Permian-to-Katy natural gas pipeline, with targeted in-service mid-2028.
- ONEOK will hold a 25.5% direct ownership interest in the Eiger Express Pipeline joint venture, in addition to its 15% stake in the Matterhorn JV, which will own 70% of Eiger Express.
- Scotia Capital, SMBC Nikko Securities America, Wells Fargo Securities, CIBC World Markets, RBC Capital Markets, and MUFG Securities Americas have been added as co-lead underwriters for ONEOK’s $747.705 million fixed-income offering.
- No shares were repurchased by ONEOK between April 1 and June 30, 2025; cumulative buybacks total 1,865,000 shares (0.32%) for $189.16 million under the current program.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for ONEOK
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $96.11 to $94.94.
- The Future P/E for ONEOK remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 22.32x to 22.05x.
- The Discount Rate for ONEOK remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from 8.01% to 8.02%.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.