Update shared on31 Aug 2025
Fair value Decreased 1.76%ONEOK’s consensus price target was modestly reduced to $96.44 as analysts weighed ongoing commodity price and macroeconomic headwinds, limited near-term NGL growth opportunities, and sector uncertainty against strong execution, synergy benefits, and robust EBITDA, resulting in a slight downward revision of fair value.
Analyst Commentary
- Analyst price target reductions reflect ongoing commodity price headwinds and macroeconomic volatility, particularly concerns about lower hydrocarbon prices into 2026.
- Bullish analysts continue to highlight Oneok’s solid execution on its growth strategy, synergy realizations from recent deals, and the company’s more integrated asset base across the value chain.
- Expectations for limited near-term growth in natural gas liquids (NGL) infrastructure may constrain future project opportunities, reducing upside potential beyond projects already underway.
- A potential Fed rate cut is viewed as a possible catalyst for midstream stocks, though market uncertainty and sector-specific challenges persist.
- Some upward revision in targets stems from improved guidance, anticipated deal benefits, and strong current EBITDA performance relative to Street estimates, especially following recent joint venture buy-ins.
What's in the News
- ONEOK, through its Matterhorn joint venture, reached final investment decision to build the Eiger Express Pipeline with partners WhiteWater, MPLX, and Enbridge, securing sufficient transportation agreements with mainly investment grade shippers.
- The Eiger Express Pipeline will transport up to 2.5 Bcf/d of natural gas from the Permian Basin to Katy, Texas, with ONEOK holding a 25.5% direct ownership interest; pipeline completion is expected mid-2028 subject to approvals.
- Matterhorn JV now owns 70% of the Eiger Express Pipeline and is positioned to enhance connectivity between the Permian Basin and LNG export markets on the Gulf Coast.
- Scotia Capital, SMBC Nikko, Wells Fargo Securities, CIBC World Markets, RBC Capital Markets, and MUFG Securities joined as Co-Lead Underwriters for ONEOK’s $747.705 million fixed-income offering.
- ONEOK completed repurchase of 1,865,000 shares for $189.16 million, representing 0.32% of shares, with no buybacks in the latest reported period.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for ONEOK
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target remained effectively unchanged, moving only marginally from $97.83 to $96.44.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for ONEOK has significantly risen from 5.9% per annum to 6.7% per annum.
- The Net Profit Margin for ONEOK has significantly fallen from 13.74% to 12.31%.
Disclaimer
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