Update shared on 12 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 0.95%Chord Energy's analyst price target was revised downward by $1.23 to $128.59, as analysts cited mixed updates in operational outlook and commodity price pressures. These factors were tempered by resilient cash flow and a continued consolidation strategy.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst sentiment on Chord Energy remains mixed, reflecting both enthusiasm for management execution and caution over commodity headwinds and inventory concerns. Recent research updates highlight distinct themes on both sides of the outlook.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts praised Chord Energy's ongoing consolidation strategy in the Bakken region. This is improving capital efficiency and offering upside from conservative inventory estimates.
- Valuation is seen as attractive, with current share pricing representing a small premium to proven developed value and room for growth in underdeveloped areas.
- The low leverage and strong balance sheet position the company to pursue further acquisitions and consolidate its presence in the region.
- Acquisition activity and buyback programs are viewed as accretive to future price targets and supportive of long-term shareholder returns.
- Bearish analysts note that persistent weakness in gas and NGL prices is likely to keep cash flows below consensus expectations. This could weigh on near-term performance.
- There are ongoing concerns about the limited length of Chord Energy's inventory, with some seeing reduced visibility into longer-term production growth.
- Despite operational execution, market headwinds and conservative guidance temper some optimism in the stock's upward potential.
What's in the News
- Completed a share repurchase tranche from July 1, 2025 to August 6, 2025 by buying 788,444 shares (1.37%) for $83 million. The cumulative buyback under the November 6, 2024 plan now totals 3,388,561 shares (5.73%) for $355.85 million (Key Developments).
- Announced unaudited consolidated production results for Q3 2025, with 155.7 MBopd crude oil, 55.1 MBblpd NGLs, and 420.1 MMcfpd natural gas. Total production was 280.9 MBoepd, nearly flat compared to the prior year (Key Developments).
- Issued new production guidance for Q4 and FY2025, forecasting oil volumes of 149.0 to 153.0 MBopd for Q4 and 153.8 to 154.8 MBopd for the full year. Projected total volumes range from 268.7 to 278.7 MBoepd for Q4 and 275.6 to 278.1 MBoepd for the year (Key Developments).
- No new share repurchases occurred from August 1, 2025 to September 30, 2025 under the buyback plan announced August 6, 2025 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate: Decreased modestly from $129.82 to $128.59 per share.
- Discount Rate: Increased slightly from 6.93% to 6.96%.
- Revenue Growth: Changed from a decline of 3.37% to a slight increase of 0.11%, indicating improved top-line expectations.
- Net Profit Margin: Decreased from 10.86% to 9.46%, suggesting lower projected profitability.
- Future P/E Ratio: Remained stable, rising marginally from 15.32x to 15.38x.
Disclaimer
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