Update shared on 17 Oct 2025
Fair value Decreased 4.55%Analysts have slightly reduced their price target for Rithm Property Trust from $3.67 to $3.50. They cited adjustments to revenue growth and profit margin assumptions as reasons for the change, and they expect the company's dividend coverage to improve over time.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst coverage highlights both positive aspects and ongoing challenges for Rithm Property Trust, with attention focused on its commercial real estate portfolio and evolving dividend profile.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts note that Rithm's diversified portfolio of commercial loans and securities positions the trust to capture growth opportunities in the commercial real estate sector.
- As capital is deployed into higher-yielding commercial real estate debt further down the capital stack, revenue generation is expected to improve. This may potentially boost returns for shareholders.
- Dividend coverage, which has not been fully sufficient since 2022, is projected to reach full coverage by 2026. This indicates improved financial stability and shareholder value.
- Improved dividend coverage is expected to lead to a higher valuation multiple for Rithm's shares, enhancing the company’s long-term growth prospects.
Bearish Takeaways
- Bearish analysts highlight that dividend coverage remains a concern in the near term, with full coverage only expected several years from now.
- Execution risk persists as the company seeks to redeploy capital into higher-yielding assets, which may face market volatility and shifting economic conditions.
- There is caution over growth assumptions, since success depends on management’s ability to navigate the more speculative segment of commercial real estate debt.
- Potential delays in achieving targeted returns or improving dividend metrics could weigh on the stock and temper future upside.
What's in the News
- Between April 1, 2025 and July 31, 2025, Rithm Property Trust did not repurchase any shares under its existing buyback program. (Key Developments)
- As of July 31, 2025, the company has completed total repurchases of 525,039 shares, representing 2.27% of shares outstanding, for $5.1 million since the buyback was announced in March 2020. (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target: Lowered from $3.67 to $3.50. This reflects a modest adjustment in fair value estimates.
- Discount Rate: Decreased slightly from 9.15% to 9.14%. This suggests a marginal change in risk assessment.
- Revenue Growth: Revised downward from 148.24% to 142.44%. This indicates expectations for slower expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Reduced significantly from 28.60% to 19.79%. This points to lower anticipated profitability.
- Future P/E: Increased from 9.0x to 13.3x. This signifies higher valuation expectations relative to projected earnings.
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