Update shared on09 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 1.29%Analysts have raised their price target for Annaly Capital Management from $21.50 to $22.50, citing improving mortgage market conditions and increased refinancing activity as key factors driving the positive outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts highlight the recent decrease in 30-year mortgage rates, which have fallen to 6.3 percent from above 7 percent earlier in the year. This is seen as a positive catalyst for Annaly Capital's outlook.
- Tighter agency spreads are viewed as a sign of stabilizing conditions within the mortgage market, supporting improved valuations for Annaly’s portfolio.
- The uptick in mortgage application volumes, with refinancing activity reportedly up 38 percent sequentially, suggests strong underlying demand that could drive growth and earnings momentum.
- While the mortgage market has not yet fully normalized, these favorable trends have prompted increased confidence in Annaly's ability to execute on its business strategy and capture potential upside.
- Bearish analysts remain cautious given that the mortgage market is still not at a fully normalized level, which could pose challenges to sustained growth.
- Concerns persist about market volatility and the potential for rates or spreads to reverse. This could potentially impact Annaly's valuation and near-term outlook.
- Uncertainty regarding the long-term sustainability of the recent surge in refinancing activity may cause some to question whether momentum can be maintained.
What's in the News
- Annaly Capital Management, Inc. was dropped from the FTSE All-World Index (USD) (Key Developments)
- The company reported that, between April 1, 2025 and June 30, 2025, it repurchased 0 shares for $0 million. This marks the completion of the previously announced buyback program with no shares repurchased (Key Developments)
Valuation Changes
- Consensus Analyst Price Target has increased from $21.20 to $21.48, representing a modest upward revision.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly from 9.97 percent to 10.47 percent.
- Revenue Growth expectations remain unchanged at 48.40 percent.
- Net Profit Margin has decreased marginally, moving from 93.71 percent to 92.46 percent.
- Future P/E ratio has edged higher, from 6.76x to 7.03x.
Disclaimer
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