Update shared on 20 Nov 2025
Analysts have increased their price target for Annaly Capital Management from $21.50 to $22.50. They cite improving mortgage market dynamics and rising refinancing activity as key factors supporting the outlook.
Analyst Commentary
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts have raised their price targets in response to improving market dynamics, reflecting increased confidence in Annaly Capital's valuation outlook.
- There has been a notable downward shift in 30-year mortgage rates, moving from over 7 percent to 6.3 percent. This supports a more favorable environment for mortgage investment.
- Agency spreads have tightened significantly in recent months, which has boosted portfolio returns and reinforced positive momentum in earnings growth.
- Mortgage application volumes, particularly refinancing activity, have risen sharply. This signals heightened transaction activity and the potential for accelerated revenue growth.
- Bearish analysts caution that the mortgage market is not yet fully normalized, suggesting continued challenges for sustained performance improvements.
- Despite the recent uptick, some remain concerned about the volatility in mortgage rates. This may lead to unforeseen valuation pressures.
- There is a watchful tone regarding the durability of agency spread tightening, as reversals could impact income stability.
What's in the News
- Annaly Capital Management was removed as a constituent of the FTSE All-World Index (USD) (Key Developments).
- No shares were repurchased under the company’s buyback program during the July through September 2025 period. The buyback was completed with no shares repurchased for $0 million (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Remains unchanged at $22.10, indicating stability in consensus valuation.
- Discount Rate: Has risen slightly from 9.02% to 9.20%. This reflects a modest increase in the required rate of return.
- Revenue Growth: Remains stable at 31.46%, with no material change in projected top-line expansion.
- Net Profit Margin: Unchanged at a robust 82.17%. This indicates consistent profitability expectations.
- Future P/E: Edged up modestly from 7.34x to 7.37x, suggesting a minimal shift in longer-term earnings multiples.
Disclaimer
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