EQH: Life Insurance Earnings Strength Will Support Future Share Price Recovery

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Equitable Holdings to $59 from $61, reflecting updated sector models that factor in solid life insurance earnings but a more cautious outlook for the broader insurance cycle.

Analyst Commentary

Recent Street research highlights a balanced view on Equitable Holdings, with modest target reductions offset by constructive long term growth expectations within life insurance.

Bullish analysts continue to see the company as well positioned to execute in a sector where core earnings trends are running ahead of share price performance, while more cautious voices point to macro insurance cycle risks that could constrain valuation multiples.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts emphasize that life insurance earnings across the sector, including Equitable, have been stronger than recent stock moves imply, suggesting potential upside to the current valuation as sentiment normalizes.
• The initiation of coverage with an Outperform rating and a target above the latest market price underscores confidence in Equitable’s ability to deliver consistent earnings growth and capital returns.
• Supportive views on life insurance fundamentals, such as resilient demand and improving interest income, are seen as tailwinds that could drive sustainable growth in return on equity and support a premium multiple over peers.
• Stable model updates, despite a slightly lower target, indicate that analysts largely view recent adjustments as fine tuning rather than a downgrade of the long term execution story.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts highlight a softening property and casualty cycle heading into 2026, which could weigh on sector sentiment and cap valuation expansion for diversified insurance names, even if Equitable’s fundamentals remain solid.
• A more cautious stance on reinsurance and certain commercial lines, where pricing is viewed as inadequate, raises concerns that higher capital costs and margin pressure across the broader insurance complex could eventually spill over into investor appetite for life insurers.
• Uncertainty around how fast the market will recognize improving earnings and higher net interest income keeps some investors on the sidelines, limiting near term multiple re rating potential.
• Sector level pressure from rising cost of capital and potential volatility in underwriting cycles leads bearish analysts to question whether current price targets fully discount longer term risk to growth and capital return trajectories.

What's in the News

• Completed a major common share repurchase tranche, buying back 12,709,207 shares for $675.98 million in Q3 2025 and finishing a broader program totaling 43,214,554 shares, or 13.8% of shares outstanding, for $2,024.9 million (Key Developments).
• Launched Structured Capital Strategies Premier, a new registered index linked annuity offering 120 index based investment options, enhanced participation rates, uncapped segments, and expanded downside protection features including a 40% buffer (Key Developments).
• Introduced innovative annuity features such as Best Entry, which can reset the starting index value over four months, and Dual Step Tier, which converts buffered losses into a positive return while preserving upside potential above a threshold (Key Developments).
• Added new death benefit options in SCS Premier, including a choice between a 5% roll up or highest anniversary value death benefit, as well as traditional return of premium alternatives, aimed at legacy and estate planning needs (Key Developments).
• Announced full redemption of all outstanding Series B depositary shares representing its 4.950% Fixed Rate Reset Noncumulative Perpetual Preferred Stock, Series B, at $1,000 per depositary share plus accrued dividends, effective September 30, 2025 (Key Developments).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value Estimate has risen slightly to approximately $64.27 from about $64.17, reflecting a marginal upward revision in long term intrinsic value assumptions.
• Discount Rate has fallen slightly to around 8.25% from roughly 8.28%, indicating a modestly lower required return in the updated valuation model.
• Revenue Growth has been effectively maintained at about 16.24%, with only an immaterial numerical adjustment that does not change the underlying growth outlook.
• Net Profit Margin remains effectively unchanged at roughly 11.93%, signaling stable expectations for underlying profitability.
• Future P/E has increased marginally to about 8.22x from approximately 8.22x previously, indicating a negligible adjustment to expected forward valuation multiples.