Update shared on21 Oct 2025
Fair value Increased 3.23%Arbor Realty Trust’s analyst fair value price target has increased to $12.00 from $11.63, as analysts cite improved investment activity and moderating risks in the broader mortgage REIT sector as key drivers for the upward revision.
Analyst Commentary
Analyst perspectives on Arbor Realty Trust have recently become more constructive, with a series of upward price target revisions reflecting improved expectations for the company’s performance. However, they remain attuned to certain market risks and sector-specific challenges.
Bullish Takeaways
- Bullish analysts highlight accelerating investment activity, which is expected to drive earnings growth in the coming quarters.
- Loan resolutions are proceeding at a healthy pace, supporting both asset quality and the company’s ability to generate returns.
- The steeper yield curve is viewed as a tailwind for residential mortgage real estate investment trusts. This provides a more favorable environment for lending and earnings expansion.
- Recent declines in 30-year mortgage rates and tightening agency spreads are contributing to an uptick in mortgage application volumes, especially on the refinancing side.
Bearish Takeaways
- Some analysts remain cautious with Underweight or similar ratings, pointing to lingering risks surrounding inflation and the still-uncertain path of interest rates.
- The positive impact of macroeconomic tailwinds on commercial REITs may be more measured compared to their effect in the residential mortgage segment.
- While progress is being made with non-performing loans, challenges remain and the credit cycle continues to pose risks to execution.
What's in the News
- Arbor Realty Trust has completed the repurchase of 4,481,397 shares, representing 2.43% of shares outstanding, for a total of $48.84 million as part of the buyback announced on March 17, 2023 (Key Developments).
- No additional shares were repurchased from April 1, 2025 to June 30, 2025, with the buyback program effectively completed during this period (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Price Target has increased modestly from $11.63 to $12.00.
- Discount Rate has risen slightly, moving from 8.12% to 8.31%.
- Revenue Growth remains negative but has improved significantly, with the decline narrowing from -39.92% to -26.86%.
- Net Profit Margin has decreased notably from 98.67% to 82.40%.
- Future P/E ratio has dropped considerably, moving from 22.75x to 15.99x.
Disclaimer
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