Update shared on29 Jul 2025
Fair value Decreased 18%Analysts have lowered their price target for Upstart Holdings from $82.59 to $67.36, citing concerns over take rate compression in its upmarket shift and macroeconomic uncertainty, though the company's AI-driven lending model and large addressable market remain long-term positives.
Analyst Commentary
- Bearish analysts see take rate compression risk due to Upstart's shift upmarket, which could pressure profitability despite its position as a leading marketplace lender.
- Bullish analysts believe Upstart's AI-driven lending model enables more accurate risk-based loan pricing, supporting stronger near-term earnings potential.
- Upside in earnings is contingent upon stable macroeconomic conditions, specifically the absence of unexpected interest rate cuts or significant borrower health deterioration.
- Upstart is viewed as well-positioned to disrupt traditional lending practices over the long term through technological innovation.
- The company has the opportunity to penetrate a very large total addressable market as adoption of AI-based lending models increases.
What's in the News
- Cabrillo Credit Union partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans via the Upstart Referral Network, providing a seamless branded experience for qualified applicants.
- Cobalt Credit Union partnered with Upstart to offer personal loans, HELOCs, and auto refinance loans, and is purchasing HELOC portfolios from Upstart's affiliate to expand lending offerings.
- All In Credit Union partnered with Upstart to provide personal loans through the Referral Network with a streamlined, co-branded applicant process.
- Upstart provided earnings guidance: Q2 revenue expected at $225 million with a $10 million GAAP net loss; positive GAAP net income expected in the second half and for the full year 2025, with full-year revenue guidance of $1.01 billion.
- The company completed a buyback of 5,884,000 shares (7.04% of shares) for $177.95 million, with no share repurchases during Q1 2025.
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for Upstart Holdings
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $82.59 to $67.36.
- The Net Profit Margin for Upstart Holdings has significantly risen from 11.49% to 16.31%.
- The Future P/E for Upstart Holdings has significantly fallen from 61.87x to 36.33x.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.