Despite TPG's favorable structural positioning, anticipated long-term earnings growth, and attractive valuation relative to peers, the consensus analyst price target has been sharply revised down from $147.43 to $56.23.
Analyst Commentary
- Bullish analysts highlight TPG's exposure to long-term structural growth opportunities in private wealth, credit, insurance, and capital markets.
- Positive cyclical outlook for private equity, positioning TPG as a beneficiary of a sector recovery.
- Expectation of high-teens fee-related earnings growth through 2027, supported by diversified revenue streams.
- Attractive valuation metrics relative to peers enhance the investment case.
- Structural setup seen as favorable, with potential for sustained upside in earnings and price.
What's in the News
- TPG and Aquarian Holdings submitted bids at a small premium for Brighthouse Financial in the final round, while Blackstone, Apollo, and Carlyle dropped out of the process (Financial Times, 2025-06-24).
- TPG is reportedly set to sell a 6% stake in Sai Life Sciences for approximately $102 million at a slight discount to market price, with a 60-day lock-in period; TPG also plans to sell a 2.1% stake in Tata Technologies via a block deal at a 3% discount (CNBC-TV18, 2025-06-20 & 2025-06-04).
- Tessolve Semiconductor is in discussions with TPG and other private equity firms to sell a minority stake (30%-40%) aiming to raise growth capital at a $300 million valuation; due diligence is ongoing (Mint, 2025-06-04).
- TPG, in partnership with Blackstone, offered $16 billion to acquire Hologic at a significant premium, but the offer was recently declined, though negotiations may resume (Financial Times, 2025-05-27).
- TPG recently launched TPG Sports in partnership with Rory McIlroy and received a substantial anchor commitment from Abu Dhabi-based Lunate, continuing to expand exposure to sports and wellness investments (TPG announcement, 2025-05-01).
Valuation Changes
Summary of Valuation Changes for TPG
- The Consensus Analyst Price Target has significantly fallen from $147.43 to $56.23.
- The Net Profit Margin for TPG has significantly risen from 14.08% to 31.76%.
- The Consensus Revenue Growth forecasts for TPG has significantly fallen from -7.6% per annum to -15.0% per annum.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.