RELY: Lending Expansion And Profitability Will Drive Bullish Re-Rating In 2025

Analysts have modestly reduced their price target on Remitly Global to approximately $23 per share from prior levels. They cite lingering uncertainty around management’s tempered near term growth commentary, the economics and risk profile of new lending products, and ongoing immigration enforcement headlines despite the company’s strong secular growth positioning in FinTech.

Analyst Commentary

Street research indicates that the recent price target reset is driven less by a loss of confidence in Remitly Global's long term opportunity and more by a recalibration of expectations around execution pace and risk. Analysts are weighing the company’s strong track record of profitable scaling against emerging questions on growth durability and balance sheet exposure.

Bullish Takeaways

• Bullish analysts continue to view Remitly as one of the most compelling secular growth stories in FinTech. They argue that the company’s digital remittance platform is structurally gaining share from legacy providers, which supports a premium valuation multiple despite the target cut.
• The company’s history of scaling faster and more profitably than initially expected is seen as evidence of disciplined execution. This reinforces confidence that management can navigate near term volatility while still compounding revenue and earnings over the medium term.
• Over the long term, the introduction of lending products is viewed as an opportunity to deepen customer relationships, increase wallet share, and expand the revenue base beyond transactions. This could justify multiple expansion if unit economics prove attractive.
• Bullish analysts note that the current share price already reflects a degree of macro and regulatory risk. They suggest that successful delivery against reiterated guidance could drive upside as sentiment normalizes.

Bearish Takeaways

• Bearish analysts are concerned that management’s insistence that Q3 guidance is accurate and not a beat and raise setup signals a plateauing of near term upside. This could limit the likelihood of positive estimate revisions that typically support higher price targets.
• Indications that current 2026 revenue forecasts may be too optimistic raise the risk of downward revisions to long term growth expectations, which would pressure valuation for a stock still priced as a high growth FinTech leader.
• The new lending initiatives introduce incremental uncertainty around unit economics, funding strategy, and credit exposure. This prompts caution that missteps could weigh on profitability and constrain capital allocation flexibility.
• Persistent news flow around immigration enforcement and its potential downstream effects on remittance volumes is seen as an overhang. Bearish analysts warn that regulatory or enforcement shocks could disrupt growth trajectories and inject additional volatility into the shares.

What's in the News

• Raised full year 2025 guidance, now expecting total revenue of $1.619 billion to $1.621 billion, up about 28% year over year, with GAAP net income projected to be positive for the year (company guidance).
• Issued new guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025, projecting total revenue of $426 million to $428 million, representing 21% to 22% year over year growth, and positive GAAP net income for the quarter (company guidance).
• Completed a buyback tranche between July 1 and September 30, 2025, repurchasing 613,560 shares (roughly 0.3% of shares) for $11.88 million under the August 6, 2025 authorization (company disclosure).
• Scheduled an Analyst and Investor Day, indicating ongoing engagement with the market on strategy, growth outlook, and financial targets (company event).

Valuation Changes

• Fair Value: Unchanged at approximately $21.50 per share, indicating no revision to the intrinsic value estimate despite updated assumptions.
• Discount Rate: Risen slightly from about 7.33% to 7.33%, reflecting a marginal increase in perceived risk or required return.
• Revenue Growth: Stable at roughly 17.56%, suggesting no change to long term topline growth expectations.
• Net Profit Margin: Essentially unchanged, edging fractionally lower from about 6.46% to 6.46%, implying a steady outlook for profitability.
• Future P/E: Increased very slightly from roughly 38.67x to 38.67x, indicating a minimally higher valuation multiple applied to forward earnings.