Update shared on 09 Dec 2025
Fair value Decreased 2.62%Narrative Update on Marex Group Price Target
Analysts have modestly reduced their averaged price target on Marex Group from approximately $49.00 to about $47.70. This reflects slightly weaker top line growth assumptions, partially offset by expectations for improved profit margins and a marginally lower future price to earnings multiple.
What's in the News
- Marex Group has launched a US structured products business targeting RIAs, broker dealers, and private banks, led by new Head of US Distribution Scott Kerbel. The initiative aims to offer diversified non bank issuance, faster product turnaround, and transparent pricing (Key Developments).
- The company is actively pursuing acquisitions, with CEO Ian Lowitt highlighting a strong and disciplined M&A pipeline for the remainder of the year and into 2026 (Key Developments).
- Levi & Korsinsky has notified investors of a securities class action lawsuit alleging that Marex improperly inflated cash flow and Market Making segment results through off book intercompany transactions, with a lead plaintiff deadline of December 8, 2025 (Key Developments).
- Scott+Scott has filed a separate securities class action on behalf of short sellers, also alleging that Marex overstated cash flow and Market Making revenues, assets, and profits via off book intercompany transactions, leading to losses when the information emerged (Key Developments).
- Marex has issued guidance for the quarter ended September 30, 2025, projecting revenue of $475 million to $485 million, profit before tax of $94 million to $99 million, and diluted EPS of $0.88 to $0.93 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value: Reduced modestly from approximately $49.00 to about $47.70 per share, reflecting a slightly lower intrinsic value estimate.
- Discount Rate: Effectively unchanged at around 13.46 percent, indicating no material shift in perceived risk or required return.
- Revenue Growth: The forecast decline has deepened from about negative 7.8 percent to roughly negative 9.5 percent, signaling a more cautious outlook on top line performance.
- Net Profit Margin: Increased slightly from roughly 18.9 percent to about 20.0 percent, implying expectations for modestly better profitability.
- Future P/E: Trimmed marginally from about 13.77x to approximately 13.41x, pointing to a slightly lower valuation multiple on forward earnings.
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